Como x Lecce Betting tips for February 28 in Italy Serie A
| 📅 28/2/2026 14:00 |
 Como1.41 |
X 4.31 |
Lecce  7.50 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Como x Lecce:
🔮 Lecce wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Lecce, you can win up to $3750.00!
Important information for your tip for Como x Lecce:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Como in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-343.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Lecce in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-150.0.
👉 In the last 7 Lecce matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Como vs Lecce?
Lets analyze the match between Como and Lecce that will take place at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, a traditional stadium and home of Como 1907, which provides the home team with a familiar environment and natural advantage. 🏟️
📈 Como has shown good recent performance at home, averaging 2 goals scored per game and only 1 conceded, along with a dominant ball possession (66%). They shoot much more (18 shots per game) compared to Lecce (9), indicating greater offensive control. Lecce struggles away from home, with a low average of goals scored (1) and lower possession (38%), and concedes more shots.
📰 Recent news highlights Comos important victory over Juventus under coach Cesc Fàbregas, showing a confident and rising team. Conversely, Lecce is experiencing a tense moment away from home with hostile fans against strong opponents like Inter; despite this, they managed two consecutive wins to stay in the relegation fight.
Analyzing the median odds provided by bookmakers: Comos victory is priced at 1.42 (~70% implied), a draw at 4.33 (~23%), and Lecces win at 7.5 (~13%). After normalization for margin adjustments, approximate fair probabilities are: Como ~68%, Draw ~21%, Lecce ~11%.
Based on offensive/defensive stats combined with recent news showing a strong Como playing in their historic stadium versus a pressured but combative Lecce away, my personal estimate favors a high probability of Como victory (~65-70%), a low draw (~20%), and a reduced chance of an away win (~10-15%).
Fair odds would be roughly: Como between 1.43-1.54, draw between 4.5-5, Lecce above 6. Comparing with the final odds given by the house (Como @1.4 / Draw @4.333 / Lecce @9), I see value mainly in the away victory odds due to the high quote relative to the low estimated probability.
However, the expected values calculated by the Bets Kenya model show a negative EV for Home (-3.46%) and Draw (-15%), but positive for Away Win (+4.8%). This indicates value in betting on Lecce even as underdogs — I partially agree because despite their away difficulties, they can still surprise given their urgent need for points.
Suggestion: Betting moderately on Lecces victory might be interesting to seek value in the high odds (@9). Betting on Como is safe but with little positive expected value given the low price offered by the bookmakers.
Summary:
- Favorable scenario for Como: recent better offensive/defensive performance + traditional home advantage + confidence after big win;
- Lecce needs to score points: external pressure + recent good performances could lead to surprises;
- Recommended bet: Away victory with positive expected value (+4.8%); be cautious as it is a risky bet;
- Safe bet but with little expected profit: Comos victory due to the demonstrated technical superiority in the data.
Lets take advantage of this detailed analysis to make informed bets! ⚽💰 #ApuestasClub #SerieA #ComoVsLecce
Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Como x Lecce?
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Analysis from Como x Lecce for the Italy Serie A – 28 of February
🏟️ Como X Lecce – Italy Serie A
📅 28 of February, 2026 – 14:00
🔵 Como – Winning probability: 70.59% | Fair line: 1.42
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 18.33% | Fair line: 5.45
🔴 Lecce – Winning probability: 11.08% | Fair line: 9.03
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Como
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
The latest news about Como x Lecce
Como 1907: Como 1907, coached by former Barcelona player Cesc Fàbregas, secured a 2-0 victory over Juventus in Serie A on February 21, 2026, with goals from forward Vojvoda and midfielder Caqueret; the team played in a 4-3-3 formation (Butez; Smolcic, Ramon, Kempf, Valle; Caqueret, Perrone, Da Cunha; Vojvoda, Baturina, Douvikas) and impressed in fantasy rankings, with Da Cunha scoring 9 points and Douvikas earning a solid 7.5 rating, while a recent fantasy league round highlighted the impact of several Como players in boosting the coach’s score.
Lecce: Lecce was in the spotlight this week after hosting Inter at Via del Mare, where the home crowd repeatedly booed Inter defender Bastoni whenever he touched the ball, creating a notably hostile environment; despite a strong Inter squad featuring impactful substitutes like Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Stefan Akanji, the Nerazzurri secured the win, emphasizing the depth of their squad even with several starters absent, while Lecce’s coach, Roberto Di Francesco, celebrated their second consecutive victory keeping the team in the fight to stay in Serie A, and club goalkeeper Wladimiro Falcone drew interest from Juventus as a potential new starter for the upcoming summer transfer window.
Table analysis for the game between Como and Lecce
How: Como is in 6th position with 45 points, fighting for a spot that guarantees qualification for the Conference League. The team is tied in points with the 7th place and can still move up a few positions in the table, which would make their participation in European competitions more advantageous. This match is important for Como to maintain or improve their position and secure a place in international competitions, increasing their strength and relevance on the national scene.
Lecce: Lecce is in 18th place, within the relegation zone with 24 points, 6 points away from the team outside the relegation zone (16th place). With few rounds left in the championship, this match is vital for Lecce to try to escape relegation to the second division. Every point gained can make a big difference in the fight to stay in Serie A, making this game a real battle for survival in Italian footballs top tier.
Summary: This game is very important for both teams: Como seeks to secure a spot in European competitions, while Lecce fights desperately to avoid relegation. A match with a lot of pressure and great impact on both teams future this season. ⚽🔥
How the handicap and odds moved for Como x Lecce
It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Como x Lecce.
Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.
📊 With a variation of -2.82%, the odds for Como are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @1.42 for Como and now the odds are @1.38.
📊 The odds for Draw had a slight Raised of 7.14%: the market opened with odds of @4.2 for Draw and now the odds are @4.5.
📊 The odds for Lecce had a slight Raised of 5.56%: the market opened with odds of @9.0 for Lecce and now the odds are @9.5.
📊 The main handicap is stable: the current handicap of -1.25 for Como is exactly the same from its opening.
📊 The market expects more goals than when it opened: the goals handicap opened at 2.25 and now is at 2.50 goals.
Tips for the 1×2 market for Como x Lecce
When the best bet on Como x Lecce is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1488452 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Is betting on Como worth it?
🔵 Como: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 70.59% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.41. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 710 times – profiting $291.10;
- And would have lost other 290 times – with a loss of -$290.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$1.10.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 18.33% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.31. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 180 times – having a profit of $595.80;
- And would lose other 820 times – having a loss of -$820.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$224.20.
Is it worth betting on Lecce?
🔴 Lecce: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 11.08%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 7.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 110 times – having a profit of $715.00;
- And would have lost other 890 times – with a loss of -$890.00 because of them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$175.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Como x Lecce
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Como
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Como x Lecce
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 Como, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 Como.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Lecce.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Como x Lecce
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Como x Lecce
Which team is the favourite in Como x Lecce?
From our analysis, the team that comes out as favourite is Como, with a win probability of 70.59%. Still, favourite does not guarantee a win!
Who will win: Como or Lecce?
Keep in mind: there are no certainties in sports betting and we cannot guarantee a winner. But based on our analysis, we believe Como has the higher chance to win this game, with a probability of 70.59%. If you bet on Como, do so responsibly!
What are the chances of Como beating Lecce today?
Based on our calculations, in every 100 matches we estimate Como would win about 71 of those against Lecce.
What are the chances of Lecce beating Como today?
According to our analysis, out of every 100 games we expect Lecce to win approximately 11 of them against Como.
Which team should I bet on: Como or Lecce?
A good bettor always searches for positive expected value bets. Our analysis suggests: Lecce Wins as the best pick, with EV of 5.20%. Bet responsibly and practice sound bankroll management: keep stakes under 2% of your capital!
How much is Como paying today? See what you can win by betting on Como x Lecce:
The average odds for Como to beat Lecce today are 1.41. So a KSh1000 stake could pay KSh1410.00 if Como wins. Bet responsibly and remember outcomes are not certain.
How much is Lecce paying today? See what you can win by betting on Como x Lecce:
The odds for Lecce to beat Como today are around 7.50. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh7500.00 if Lecce wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
