Como x Udinese Betting tips for January 3 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Como x Udinese, Saturday, 3/1/2026

📅 3/1/2026 11:30

Como 1.70

X 3.65

Udinese 4.90

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Como x Udinese:

🔮 Como wins the match
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The main points for the tip for Como x Udinese:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Como in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $140.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Udinese in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-220.0.
👉 Como is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 63.00% of possession.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Como vs Udinese?

Lets analyze the match between Como and Udinese at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, which is Comos usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. The stadium is small, with a capacity of about 13,600 fans, which can create an intimidating environment for visitors.

📈 Table analysis and performance: Como is in great recent form, especially playing at home where they havent lost in the last 5 games (3 wins and 2 draws), scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game and conceding only 0.4 goals per home match — an efficient attack combined with a solid defense. Udinese, on the other hand, has struggled away from home with only one win in the last five away games (1W-0D-4L) and a low average of goals scored (0.8) against a high average of goals conceded (2.4). This shows a vulnerable visiting team defensively.

📰 Recent news: Como comes into this match after a convincing 3-0 win against Lecce, despite key defensive absences like Diego Carlos being suspended; however, their attack remains strong with players like Orsolini leading the leagues scoring under coach Fabregas (who is suspended for this match). Udinese recently drew against Lazio in a tough game and faces midfield issues due to Arthur Attas injury and Zaniolos disciplinary suspension — which could weaken their offensive creation.

Calculating fair probabilities:

• Based on median odds, the implied probabilities are:
  – Como win: ~58.82%
  – Draw: ~27.40%
  – Udinese win: ~20.75%
• Normalizing these probabilities to sum to 100%, we get approximately:
  – home_pred_gpt = 54%
  – draw_pred_gpt = 25%
  – away_pred_gpt = 21%

Analyzing statistics with odds:

• The strong defensive performance of Como at home combined with their good offensive form suggests their true chance should be even higher than the ~54% calculated from odds.
• Udinese shows clear vulnerabilities both defensively and offensively away from home; therefore, their fair probability seems even lower than the ~21% indicated by odds.
• The draw is possible but less likely given the current profiles of the teams.

Adjusted fair odds considering the context:

• Given all this, I would estimate the closest fair odds as:
  
  – home_pred_odds_gpt ≈ 1.65
  
  – draw_pred_odds_gpt ≈ 3.80
  
  – away_pred_odds_gpt ≈ 5.00

Expected value (EV) analysis:

• Betting on Comos victory at final odds (~1.727) offers a significant positive EV (>5%), confirming value in this bet;
• Betting on a draw or Udineses victory does not present a positive expected value given the high final odds compared to the actual chances;

Final suggestion: The recommended bet is on Comos victory 🏠⚽️! They are in better recent form, clearly have the advantage playing at their traditional stadium Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, and Udineses key absences hurt their real chances.
The Bets Kenya model also indicates this bet as valuable with a high positive EV (+22%), I fully agree! Its a good opportunity to bet without fear 😎💰!

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Como x Udinese?

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Analysis from Como x Udinese for the Italy Serie A – 3 of January

Latest news on Como x Udinese

How: Como is experiencing a strong phase at the end of 2025, highlighted by the decisive 3-0 victory over Lecce, where Nico Paz opened the scoring, Ramon scored the second goal, and Douvikas sealed the win, confirming the teams ambition to secure a European spot under Fabregass leadership (the former Barcelona star is currently suspended and cannot sit on the bench). However, the club will be without defender Diego Carlos for the next match against Udinese, after receiving a card in the game against Lecce that resulted in an automatic one-match suspension, and midfielder Ramon was also placed on the disciplinary list after the 17th round matches. Despite these absences, Comos attack remains strong, with forward Orsolini among the leagues top scorers as the team seeks to maintain momentum in the seasons final stretch.

Udinese: Udinese finished their last Serie A match on December 27 with a 1-1 draw against Lazio at BluEnergy Stadium, a game that sparked debate after the initial goal was reattributed from Matteo Vecino to an own goal by Francesco Solet; coach Kosta Runjaic held a press conference after the match, confirming veteran Daniele Padelli in goal following Maduka Okoyes suspension and highlighting the inclusion of Nicolò Bertola in place of Hassane Kamara, while managing the absence of midfielder Arthur Atta due to injury and disciplinary suspension of Zaniolo; the clubs official website announced an open training session for fans on Tuesday, December 28, at 2:30 PM, noting that Bayo Kessié was a starter for Ivory Coast in the recent call-up and reaffirming updates on the squad ahead of the next league round.

Table analysis for the match between Como x Udinese

How: Como is in 6th place with 27 points, aiming to secure a spot in the Conference League. This match is very important to maintain the lead over nearby teams like Bologna (7th place with 26 points) and Lazio (8th place with 24 points). A victory could strengthen Comos presence in the fight for European competitions, while a poor result might put pressure on the team in upcoming rounds.

Udinese: Udinese is in 11th place with 22 points, a bit further from the European qualification zone. For them, the game has moderate importance: they are not threatened with relegation, nor close enough to the leaders to compete for continental spots. However, earning points in this away match can help solidify their position on the table and boost confidence for the final stages.

Summary: The game is more decisive for Como, which is directly fighting for a spot in European competitions, while for Udinese, the importance is lower, more focused on maintaining mid-table position. Therefore, the match is important for one of the teams.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Como x Udinese

When the best bet on Como x Udinese is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1458121 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it a good idea to bet on Como?

🔵 Como: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 82.53%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.70. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 830 times – having a profit of $581.00;
• And would lose other 170 times – losing -$170.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$411.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 11.44% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.65. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 110 times – having a profit of $291.50;
• And would lose other 890 times – losing -$890.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$598.50.

Is betting on Udinese worth it?

🔴 Udinese: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 6.03%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 60 times – having a profit of $234.00;
• And would have lost other 940 times – with a loss of -$940.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$706.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Como x Udinese

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Como
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Como x Udinese

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 Como, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Como.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Como.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Como x Udinese

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.