Cremonese x Genoa Betting tips for February 15 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Cremonese x Genoa, Sunday, 15/2/2026

📅 15/2/2026 14:00

Cremonese 2.95

X 3.00

Genoa 2.54

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Cremonese x Genoa:

🔮 Genoa wins the match
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Some important points for the tip for Cremonese x Genoa:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Cremonese in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-265.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-175.0.

🤖 What does ChatGPT have to say about our prediction for Cremonese vs Genoa?

Lets analyze the match between Cremonese and Genoa, which will take place at Stadio Giovanni Zini, the official stadium of Cremonese, ensuring home advantage for them. 🏟️

📈 Looking at recent stats, Cremonese has a modest home performance: scored 4 goals and conceded 6 in their last 5 home games, with only 1 win and 2 draws in that period. Genoa away scored more goals (6) but also conceded quite a bit (8), showing defensive vulnerability. The average ball possession is low for both teams (44% for Cremonese and 43% for Genoa), indicating more contested midfield battles.

The median odds suggest a slight advantage to the visitor (Genoa) with win odds around 2.54 compared to 2.95 for the home team (Cremonese). After normalizing the implied probabilities from the median odds, we get approximately: Cremonese win ~33%, draw ~33%, Genoa win ~34%. This indicates a balanced game.

Considering recent league averages — Cremonese scores about 1 goal per game at home and concedes about 1; Genoa scores around 2 goals per away game but concedes nearly the same — we can slightly adjust the probabilities to reflect Genoas greater offensive capacity but fragile defense.

Adjusting these with the implied probabilities from the final odds (3.2 – home; 3 – draw; 2.45 – away), we estimate fair values indicating a slight edge for Genoa in the fair prediction, but not a large disparity:

• Fair probability for Cremonese victory: ~31%
• Fair probability for Draw: ~32%
• Fair probability for Genoa victory: ~37%

Comparing the expected values from the final odds versus our fair estimates, the positive value bet is on the visitor (Genoa) with an estimated EV above +10%, confirming the Bets Kenya models suggestion that this bet has value.

📰 Recent news: Cremonese has been alternating mixed results under Davide Nicola, with good players like Bonazzoli and Terracciano but suffered a recent defeat against Fiorentina which might shake their home confidence.
Genoa recently lost to Napoli in a dramatic game where they complained about the refereeing — this could motivate De Rossis team to seek recovery away.

Final suggestion:
Bet on Genoas victory, as despite defensive challenges, they have shown greater offensive power recently and have extra motivation after a controversial loss.
The calculated expected value is close to +11%, indicating a good opportunity! 🎯

Extra tip: A draw is also not far in fair probabilities (~32%), so combined or multiple bets can be considered depending on personal strategy.

Overall, I fully agree with the Bets Kenya model in this analysis! 🚀

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Analysis from Cremonese x Genoa for the Italy Serie A – 15 of February

The latest news about Cremonese x Genoa

Cremonese: Cremonese, managed by coach Davide Nicola, has experienced a mixed period in Serie A, recording a 2-0 victory over Lecce on December 7, 2025, with goals from Federico Bonazzoli and Sanabria, a 1-1 draw against Udinese on October 20, 2025, thanks to a goal from Filippo Terracciano, and a goalless draw against Lazio on December 20, 2025; most recently, the team was defeated 1-0 by Fiorentina on January 4, 2026, when Keans decisive goal secured the three points for the visitors, and Terracciano was highlighted as Cremoneses best player, while the squad continues to feature emerging talents like versatile Vardy, goalkeeper Alessandro Audero, defender Federico Baschirotto, and promising young Folino, alongside experienced contributors like Bonazzoli and the defensive midfield core formed by Payero and Vandeputte.

Genoa: Genoas last Serie A match ended in a 3-2 home defeat to Napoli on February 7, 2026, after a dramatic game that saw the club concede a penalty early when Napolis goalkeeper Buongiorno failed to clear the ball and Malinovskyi converted, only for Colombo to score from a penalty after a second mistake by Buongiorno; the team, coached by De Rossi, played in a 3-5-2 formation with Bijlow in goal, a back three consisting of Marcandalli, Ostigard, and Vasquez, five midfielders Norton-Cuffy, Malinovski, Frendrup, Ellertsson, and Martin, and the attacking duo Vitinha-Colombo, but despite their reaction, they were defeated by Napolis final pressure and a controversial VAR decision that awarded a decisive penalty after a clash between Cornet and Vergara, leading Genoa to publicly criticize the refereeing and the league to postpone the next referee round to the 24th round.

Table analysis for the match between Cremonese x Genoa

Cremonese: The match against Genoa is crucial for Cremonese, which is in 16th place with 23 points. They are very close to the relegation zone, which starts at 18th place with 18 points, so every point gained is vital to keep the team out of danger. Winning this direct encounter is a great chance for Cremonese to gain momentum in the table and distance themselves from the threat of relegation. ⚽🔥

Genoa: Genoa, just above Cremonese, is also in 15th place with the same 23 points. For them, this game is key to surpass a direct competitor in the fight to escape relegation. Securing three points at home or away could be a decisive step for Serie A survival, providing more confidence for the upcoming matches. It’s a matter of life or death! 💪🔥

Summary: This duel is very important for both teams, as it is a direct contest in the danger zone of the table. Both Cremonese and Genoa need victory to escape relegation and stay in Serie A for another season. An intense and emotional showdown! ⚔️

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Cremonese x Genoa

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Cremonese x Genoa.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Cremonese x Genoa

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Cremonese and Genoa.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1479336 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is betting on Cremonese worth it?

🔵 Cremonese: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 23.74% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.95. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – this would give you a profit of $468.00
• And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$292.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.94%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 310 times – this would give you a profit of $620.00
• And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$70.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Genoa?

🔴 Genoa: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 45.31%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.54. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 450 times – profiting $693.00;
• And would have lost other 550 times – with a loss of -$550.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$143.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Cremonese x Genoa

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Cremonese
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cremonese x Genoa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Cremonese and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Cremonese.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Genoa.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cremonese x Genoa

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for Cremonese x Genoa