Empoli x Genoa Betting tips for December 28 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Empoli x Genoa, Saturday, 28/12/2024

📅 28/12/2024 14:00

Empoli 2.40

X 3.00

Genoa 3.20

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Empoli x Genoa:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Empoli x Genoa

The main points for the tip for Empoli x Genoa: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Empoli in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-225.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $370.0. 👉 Genoa did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 3 Empoli matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 Genoa matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 road matches, Genoa has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Empoli x Genoa for the Italy Serie A – 28 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Empoli and Genoa.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1240180 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Empoli x Genoa

Is it a good idea to bet on Empoli?

🔵 Empoli: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 39.28% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 390 times – having a profit of $546.00;
• And would lose other 610 times – having a loss of -$610.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$64.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 36.04% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 360 times – this would give you a profit of $720.00
• And would lose other 640 times – losing -$640.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$80.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is betting on Genoa worth it?

🔴 Genoa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.68% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 250 times – profiting $550.00;
• And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$200.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Empoli x Genoa

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Empoli
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Empoli x Genoa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Empoli, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Empoli.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Genoa.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Empoli x Genoa

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.