Fiorentina x AC Milan Betting tips for January 11 in Italy Serie A
| 📅 11/1/2026 14:00 |
 Fiorentina3.85 |
X 3.47 |
AC Milan  1.93 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Fiorentina x AC Milan:
🔮 Fiorentina wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Fiorentina, you can win up to $1925.00!
Important information for your tip for Fiorentina x AC Milan:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Fiorentina in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $20.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on AC Milan in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $204.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Fiorentina scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against AC Milan, Fiorentina scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Fiorentina x AC Milan, with Fiorentina as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Playing as the home team, Fiorentina conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against AC Milan.
👉 Fiorentina is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 63.00% of possession.
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Analysis from Fiorentina x AC Milan for the Italy Serie A – 11 of January
🏟️ Fiorentina X AC Milan – Italy Serie A
📅 11 of January, 2026 – 14:00
🔵 Fiorentina – Winning probability: 29.34% | Fair line: 3.41
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 21.98% | Fair line: 4.55
🔴 AC Milan – Winning probability: 48.67% | Fair line: 2.05
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Fiorentina
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks
Tips for the 1×2 market for Fiorentina x AC Milan
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Fiorentina and AC Milan.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1460537 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Is it worth betting on Fiorentina?
🔵 Fiorentina: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 29.34% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.85. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 290 times – profiting $826.50;
- And would have lost other 710 times – with a loss of -$710.00 because of them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$116.50.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 21.98%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.47. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 220 times – this would give you a profit of $543.40
- And would have lost other 780 times – with a loss of -$780.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$236.60.
Should you bet on AC Milan?
🔴 AC Milan: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 48.67% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.93. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 490 times – having a profit of $455.70;
- And would have lost other 510 times – with a loss of -$510.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$54.30.
Handicaps analysis for the match Fiorentina x AC Milan
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Fiorentina
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Fiorentina x AC Milan
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Fiorentina and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 Fiorentina.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 Fiorentina.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Fiorentina x AC Milan
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
