Fiorentina x Pisa Betting tips for February 23 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Fiorentina x Pisa, Monday, 23/2/2026

📅 23/2/2026 17:30

Fiorentina 1.69

X 3.75

Pisa 4.75

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Fiorentina x Pisa:

🔮 Pisa wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Pisa, you can win up to $2375.00!

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The main points for the tip for Fiorentina x Pisa:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Fiorentina in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-325.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Pisa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Fiorentina scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Fiorentina matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Fiorentina conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Fiorentina vs Pisa:

Lets analyze the match between Fiorentina and Pisa at Stadio Artemio Franchi, a traditional home of Fiorentina, which will surely have the support of the fans to try for an important victory.

📈 Table analysis: Fiorentina is in an intermediate position in Serie A, seeking to establish itself and advance in the competition, while Pisa fights against relegation, occupying the second-to-last position. This difference in objectives can greatly influence the teams motivation: Fiorentina wants to consolidate its campaign and avoid negative surprises; Pisa desperately needs to score points to escape relegation.

📰 Recent news: Fiorentina has mixed results, with a recent defeat in the UEFA Conference League and a draw in the last league game. Additionally, there are speculations about changes in the coaching staff that could affect the internal environment. On the other hand, Pisa has a standout player (Felipe Loyola) who recently scored his first Serie A goal and could be an offensive asset; however, they suffer from an important suspension in defense (Aebischer), a negative factor to hold off opponents attacks.

Analyzing recent statistics: Fiorentina averages 1 goal per game at home in recent matches (6 goals in 5 games), but also concedes about 1.6 goals per game when playing as hosts — showing some defensive vulnerability. Pisa scores less away (average 1 goal) and concedes more goals (2 per away game). In possession and shots, Fiorentina clearly dominates with more total shots (17 vs. 12) and higher possession (57% vs. 40%), indicating game control when playing at Artemio Franchi.

Fair odds calculation:

• Based on median odds, approximate implied probabilities are: Fiorentina win ~54%, Draw ~25%, Pisa win ~21%;
• The data suggests a clear advantage for Fiorentina due to strong home advantage and better recent offensive/defensive performance compared to the opponent;
• However, Fiorentinas defensive struggles indicate that a win is not guaranteed or easy;

Adjusted fair odds calculation:

• I would bet on a fair odds close to 1.85 for Fiorentinas win considering their strong home advantage but vulnerabilities;
• Draw odds might be close to the current odds (~3.7-4), as both teams have a reasonable track record in this regard;
• Pisas win seems underestimated by the original model given their recent tough period without away wins — fair odds above the current ~4.5-5 seem appropriate.

Expected value analysis:

• Betting on the away win according to Bets Kenya model shows a high positive EV (+42%), but this seems overly optimistic given Pisas poor away stats;
• Betting on Fiorentina or draw has a negative EV according to the model — consistent with the odds offered by bookmakers;

Final suggestion: Although the positive expected value indicated by the model for betting on Pisa to win is tempting due to the high odds (~5), my analysis indicates high risk because of the visitors defensive fragility without suspended defenders and low recent offensive production away from home.
Therefore, I prefer to recommend caution — betting on a safe Fiorentina victory or even a combined market “Fiorentina does not lose” would be more prudent.
A draw is also possible given the recent instability of the home team.

Quick summary 🏟️⚽️: The game at the historic Artemio Franchi stadium clearly favors the home team due to tactical/statistical/motivational strength; news indicates a mixed environment but still favorable to Fiorentina; a safe bet is to trust a win or draw for them despite less attractive odds;
avoid high risks betting against this scenario at the moment!

Looking for another bookie to bet on Fiorentina x Pisa?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Fiorentina x Pisa, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Fiorentina x Pisa for the Italy Serie A – 23 of February

The latest news about Fiorentina x Pisa

Fiorentina: Fiorentinas recent form has been mixed, highlighted by a 1-0 defeat to FC Lausanne-Sport in the UEFA Conference League on December 18, 2025, leaving Viola in sixth place and forcing them to face the February knockout round against Omonia Nicosia or Jagiellonia Białystok; in Serie A, the team held a draw against Torino in the last league match, and off-field speculation about Maurizio Sarri resurfaced, who was linked to the position in a January 2026 article suggesting he might become Violas coach next summer.

Pisa: Felipe Loyola, who joined Pisa in the January transfer window, made his Serie A debut by scoring his first goal against AC Milan on February 13, 2026, despite Pisas 2-1 defeat; his performance earned a 9.5 rating and highlighted him as one of the in-form players as coach Hiljemark prepares the team for the upcoming Tuscan derby against Fiorentina, a crucial match in the clubs fight to stay in the top flight. Pisa is in the penultimate position in Serie A, occupying 19th place with 21 points, six points ahead of the bottom two teams (Verona and the last-place team), and will be without defender Aebischer, who is suspended after being listed among players on alert for the next round.

Table analysis for the match between Fiorentina x Pisa

Fiorentina: Fiorentina is in 18th place, within the relegation zone with 21 points. This match is very important for them, as a positive result will be crucial in trying to escape relegation. There is still a chance of recovery, so every point counts to avoid the drop. Playing at home makes the game even more decisive to try to earn valuable points.

Pisa: Pisa is in 19th place, also in the relegation zone, with only 15 points. Their situation is even more delicate, practically submerged in the fight against relegation. This game is critical to try to minimize the damage and, if possible, seek a reaction, but mathematically the chances of escaping relegation are quite small, making the match another opportunity to keep hope alive.

Summary: A very important match for both teams, fighting to avoid relegation. It will be a decisive confrontation in the battle to stay in Serie A, with a lot of pressure and the need to earn points for Fiorentina and Pisa.

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Fiorentina x Pisa

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Fiorentina x Pisa.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Fiorentina x Pisa

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Fiorentina x Pisa right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1484672 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it worth betting on Fiorentina?

🔵 Fiorentina: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 51.66% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.69. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 520 times – profiting $358.80;
• And would have lost other 480 times – with a loss of -$480.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$121.20.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.19% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 180 times – profiting $495.00;
• And would have lost other 820 times – with a loss of -$820.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$325.00.

Is it worth betting on Pisa?

🔴 Pisa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 30.15% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 300 times – profiting $1125.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$425.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Fiorentina x Pisa

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Fiorentina
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Fiorentina x Pisa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Fiorentina and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Fiorentina.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Pisa.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Fiorentina x Pisa

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Fiorentina x Pisa