Genoa x Cagliari Betting tips for April 29 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Genoa x Cagliari, Monday, 29/4/2024

📅 29/4/2024 18:45

Genoa 2.15

X 3.10

Cagliari 3.40

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Genoa x Cagliari:

🔮 Cagliari wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Cagliari, you can win up to $1700.00!

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The main points for the tip for Genoa x Cagliari: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-255.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Cagliari in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-150.0. 👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Genoa x Cagliari, with Genoa as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Genoa conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Genoa has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Cagliari playing at home.

Looking for another bookie to bet on Genoa x Cagliari?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2024. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Genoa x Cagliari for the Italy Serie A – 29 of April

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Genoa and Cagliari.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1108288 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Genoa x Cagliari

Is betting on Genoa worth it?

🔵 Genoa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.45% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.15. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $345.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$355.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.29% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $525.00
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$225.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Cagliari?

🔴 Cagliari: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 44.26% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 440 times – this would give you a profit of $1056.00
• And would lose other 560 times – having a loss of -$560.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$496.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Genoa x Cagliari

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Genoa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Genoa x Cagliari

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Genoa and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Genoa.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Cagliari.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Genoa x Cagliari

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.