Genoa x Pisa Betting tips for January 3 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Genoa x Pisa, Saturday, 3/1/2026

📅 3/1/2026 14:00

Genoa 1.90

X 3.20

Pisa 4.70

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Genoa x Pisa:

🔮 Pisa wins the match
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Some important points for the tip for Genoa x Pisa:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-295.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Pisa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Genoa conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Pisa conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Genoa vs Pisa?

Lets analyze the match between Genoa and Pisa that will take place at Luigi Ferraris Stadium, Genoas traditional home, which already gives them a slight advantage. 🏟️

📈 Genoa has shown a mixed performance at home, averaging 1 goal scored and 2 conceded per game in recent home matches. They have an average ball possession of 44%, less than their opponent who has 56%. Pisa, on the other hand, scores more goals away (average of 2) but also concedes quite a bit (average of 2). Pisa has less possession (39%) and concedes more shots on target (18 vs 10 for Genoa). This indicates an open game where both can create chances.

📰 Recent news indicate Genoa is undergoing technical changes with Fabio De Rossi in charge after recent negative results. The team features experienced players like Leali in goal and promising young players like Norton-Cuffy. The resilience highlighted by the coach could be crucial to hold Pisa at home.

Analyzing the median odds we have:

• Genoa win: median odds ~1.9 → implied probability ~52.6%
• Draw: median odds ~3.2 → implied probability ~31.25%
• Pisa win: median odds ~4.7 → implied probability ~21.3%

The sum of probabilities exceeds 100% due to the house margin (~105%). Normalizing, we get approximately:

• Fair Genoa victory: ≈50%
• Fair draw: ≈30%
• Fair Pisa victory: ≈20%

The Bets Kenya models expected value shows a positive return only on the away win (Pisa), but this doesnt align well with the weak defensive stats of the visitors and the natural home advantage for Genoa.

Suggestion: Bet on Genoa to win, as despite recent difficulties, they play at their historic stadium Luigi Ferraris and have better ball control and offensive creation compared to Pisa, which also concedes many goals away.

Recommended bet:

• Genoa victory: fair odds estimated close to 2.0 considering technical factors + home advantage;
• Be cautious with bets on a draw or away win, as although they have higher odds, they do not present a realistic positive expected value given current data;

Overall, I partially agree with the model regarding caution in betting but disagree with a clear indication to bet on the visitor — I see more security in a moderate bet on the home team seeking balanced risk/return.

Good luck! 🍀⚽️

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Analysis from Genoa x Pisa for the Italy Serie A – 3 of January

Latest news on Genoa x Pisa

Genoa: Genoa has been experiencing a mixed phase in Serie A, suffering a 2-1 home defeat to Torino on October 26, 2025 – a match where Patrick Vieira was on the bench as coach and goalkeeper Nicola Leali stood out – followed by a 3-1 loss to Roma on December 28, 2025, a result that led Gian Piero Gasperini to emphasize Genoas resilience under coach Fabio De Rossi; the current squad core, as listed in the latest lineup, includes Leali in goal, defenders like Marcandalli, Ostigard, Vasquez, and the promising English full-back Norton-Cuffy, while midfield roles are shared by Frendrup, Malinovskyi, Ellertsson, Martin, Vitinha, and forward Colombo, with Norton-Cuffy also attracting interest from major clubs for transfers.

Italy Serie A table analysis for Genoa x Pisa

Genoa: Genoa is in 17th place with 14 points, very close to the relegation zone. The team is still on the edge of the safety zone, making this match extremely important to try to earn crucial points and move away from relegation. Every point can make a difference to secure Serie A survival, so the game against Pisa is decisive for Genoa to avoid dropping to Serie B. ⚠️

Pisa: Pisa is in 19th place with only 11 points, very close to the last position and in the relegation zone. The teams situation is quite delicate, and the match against Genoa will be key to trying to escape relegation. A win could renew Pisas hopes in the fight against relegation, making this a confrontation that could determine the teams future in the competition. 🔥

Summary: This is a very important game for both teams, which are fighting to escape the relegation zone. The match could determine who gets closer to or farther from danger, and therefore the importance is high for Genoa and Pisa. 🚨

Tips for the 1×2 market for Genoa x Pisa

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Genoa x Pisa right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1458121 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Should you bet on Genoa?

🔵 Genoa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 36.26% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.90. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 360 times – this would give you a profit of $324.00
• And would lose other 640 times – having a loss of -$640.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$316.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.52% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $550.00
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$200.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Pisa?

🔴 Pisa: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 39.22%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 390 times – profiting $1443.00;
• And would lose other 610 times – losing -$610.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$833.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Genoa x Pisa

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Genoa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Genoa x Pisa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Genoa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Genoa.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Pisa.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Genoa x Pisa

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.