Genoa x Verona Betting tips for September 1 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Genoa x Verona, Sunday, 1/9/2024

📅 1/9/2024 13:30

Genoa 2.06

X 3.20

Verona 3.75

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Genoa x Verona:

🔮 Tied Match
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The main points for the tip for Genoa x Verona: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $267.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Verona in each of its last 4 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-235.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Genoa scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Verona, Genoa scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Verona conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Genoa has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Verona playing at home.

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Analysis from Genoa x Verona for the Italy Serie A – 1 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Genoa x Verona right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1171332 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Genoa x Verona

Is betting on Genoa worth it?

🔵 Genoa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 50.96% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.06. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 510 times – this would give you a profit of $540.60
• And would have lost other 490 times – with a loss of -$490.00 because of them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$50.60, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 31.81%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $704.00
• And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$24.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Verona?

🔴 Verona: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 17.23%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 170 times – having a profit of $467.50;
• And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$362.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Genoa x Verona

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Genoa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Genoa x Verona

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Genoa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Genoa.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Genoa.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Genoa x Verona

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.