Inter Milan x Genoa Betting tips for February 28 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Inter Milan x Genoa, Saturday, 28/2/2026

📅 28/2/2026 19:45

Inter Milan 1.28

X 5.45

Genoa 9.50

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Inter Milan x Genoa:

🔮 Genoa wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Genoa, you can win up to $4750.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Inter Milan x Genoa:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Inter Milan in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-32.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Inter Milan scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Genoa, Inter Milan scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 Inter Milan matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Inter Milan conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Inter Milan is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 4 home matches, it had at least 60.00% of possession.
👉 Inter Milan has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Genoa.

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Inter Milan vs Genoa?

Lets analyze the match between Inter Milan and Genoa at Giuseppe Meazza Stadium, the true home of Inter, which has a very strong recent history. Inter comes from 5 consecutive league wins, with a high average of goals scored (3 per game) and dominant ball possession (62%). At home, the team maintains this offensive strength with an average of 2.6 goals scored in the last 5 home games and concedes about 2 goals per game. Genoa shows a more modest performance away: no wins in the last 5 away games, low average of accurate shots (3 per game), and only 1 goal scored on average.

The median odds indicate a clear favoritism for Inter Milan (1.28), with a draw around 5.5 and Genoas win being quite unlikely at 9.5.

Calculating the implied probabilities from the median odds gives us:

• Inter Win: ~78%
• Draw: ~18%
• Genoa Win: ~10%

Adjusting to total 100%, the fair probabilities are close to these values due to the house margin.

Looking at the latest statistical data and recent news 📰, we see Inter is in a spectacular phase in Serie A, leading comfortably and aiming for a double national title — this greatly boosts their motivation to win this home game against a team fighting more modestly for survival or important points in the middle of the table.

On Genoas side, despite the recent good victory against Torino showing offensive potential under coach Daniele De Rossi, their away performance remains fragile to face a giant like Inter at Giuseppe Meazza.

The table analysis 📈 confirms this disparity: Inter is firmly at the top while Genoa seeks to establish itself in the competition without major immediate ambitions beyond survival or gradual improvement.

Therefore, my recommended bet is clearly on the victory of Inter Milan, since even considering the final odds offered by the market (1.3), there is a positive expected value calculated by comparing with my adjusted fair odds (~1.25). The draw or away win do not present a positive expected value given the numbers from both the statistics and recent team news.

Suggestion: Bet on Inter Milans victory, taking advantage of their exceptional moment on and off the pitch! ⚽🔥

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Inter Milan x Genoa?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Inter Milan x Genoa, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Inter Milan x Genoa for the Italy Serie A – 28 of February

Latest news on the match between Inter Milan and Genoa

Inter Milan: Inter Milan is experiencing a strong domestic campaign, leading with ten points ahead of AC Milan in the Serie A table after a record-breaking start under coach Cristian Chivu, in his first season. The team aims for a rare “double” of the league title and Coppa Italia — a feat last achieved in the treble season of 2009-10. Their hopes in the Champions League were dashed after a 5-2 defeat to Bodo Glimt, ending their European run prematurely. However, the club has shifted its focus to winning the Scudetto and has already reached the Coppa Italia semi-finals against Como, with a possible final against Atalanta or Lazio, a double national title that could generate around €23 million in additional revenue.

Genoa: Genoa continues its strong streak in Serie A with a convincing 3-0 victory over Torino at Luigi Ferraris on February 22, 2026, opening the scoring with English defender Brooke Norton-Cuffy, adding a second goal before halftime with striker Ekuban, and sealing the win after an error caused by Pedersen, when Messias finished precisely. The match highlighted Genoas aggressive pressure and solid defense, while coach Daniele De Rossi, in a recent pre-match interview, praised the fearless style and “gaglie” of the team, emphasizing the dramatic comeback against Bologna, the impressive performance against Napoli, and the recent wave of confidence that positioned rossoblù as a resilient and offensive team under his leadership.

Italy Serie A table analysis for Inter Milan x Genoa

Inter Milan: Inter Milan is in the top spot of the league, with a comfortable 10-point lead over the second-place team. This match is very important for the team to maintain this advantage and take decisive steps to secure the Serie A title and a spot in the Champions League. Every point counts to solidify this position and make the path to victory smoother. ⚽🏆

Genoa: Genoa is in 14th place, with a comfortable distance from both the relegation zone and European competition spots. For them, the game is important to maintain safety in the standings, avoiding the approach of dangerous teams near the relegation zone. Even though they are not fighting for a spot in international tournaments, earning points is essential for greater peace of mind at the end of the season. ⚔️

Summary: The match is decisive for Inter Milan in the fight for the title, while for Genoa it is important to maintain stability and avoid more serious relegation threats. Therefore, it is a relevant game for both teams, but with different objectives for the season.

Odds and handicap movements for Inter Milan x Genoa

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Inter Milan x Genoa.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Inter Milan x Genoa

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Inter Milan and Genoa.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1488452 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is betting on Inter Milan worth it?

🔵 Inter Milan: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 65.79% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.28. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 660 times – having a profit of $184.80;
• And would lose other 340 times – having a loss of -$340.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$155.20.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 15.39% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.45. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 150 times – this would give you a profit of $667.50
• And would lose other 850 times – having a loss of -$850.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$182.50.

Should you bet on Genoa?

🔴 Genoa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 18.82% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 9.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – profiting $1615.00;
• And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$805.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Inter Milan x Genoa

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Inter Milan
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Inter Milan x Genoa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.0 Inter Milan and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.5 Inter Milan.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.5 Genoa.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Inter Milan x Genoa

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for Inter Milan x Genoa