Lazio x Bologna Betting tips for December 7 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Lazio x Bologna, Sunday, 7/12/2025

📅 7/12/2025 17:00

Lazio 2.65

X 3.04

Bologna 2.70

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Lazio x Bologna:

🔮 Bologna wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Bologna, you can win up to $1350.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Lazio x Bologna:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Lazio in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $493.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Bologna in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $290.0.
👉 Lazio did not concede a goal in the last 4 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Lazio scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Bologna scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Bologna, Lazio scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 Lazio matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 Bologna matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Lazio is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 In the last 6 road matches, Bologna has not lost any of them.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Lazio vs Bologna?

Lets analyze the Lazio vs Bologna match that will take place at the Stadio Olimpico, a traditional stadium and home of Lazio, which already gives a natural advantage to the home team. 🏟️

📈 Looking at recent statistics, Lazio has a solid home performance with 4 wins and only 1 draw in their last 5 games at their stadium, averaging 1.8 goals per game and conceding only 0.6 goals. Bologna, on the other hand, shows a good away record with 4 wins and no draws or losses in recent away games, but concedes more goals (almost 2 per game) than Lazio allows at home.

The median odds indicate a balance between Lazios win (2.65) and Bolognas win (2.7), with a slightly less likely draw (3.01). After normalizing the implied probabilities from the median odds, we get approximately: Lazio win ~37%, draw ~33%, Bologna win ~30%. Considering the offensive and defensive stats of both teams, plus Lazios home advantage, my adjusted estimate would be roughly: Lazio win around 40%, draw around 30%, Bologna win about 30%.

Calculating the fair odds based on these adjusted probabilities, we have:

• Lazio: fair odds ~2.5
• Draw: fair odds ~3.3
• Bologna: fair odds ~3.3

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers (Lazio – 2.6; Draw – 3.1; Bologna – 2.9), it appears there is value in betting on Lazios victory because their odds are slightly above my fair estimates, and the expected value for this bet is positive according to my calculations.

The Bets Kenya model suggests value in betting on the visiting team (Bologna) with a positive EV (~6%), but I disagree because despite Bolognas good offensive numbers away from home, they have shown significant defensive fragility against strong teams like Lazio playing at the Olimpico – especially considering the important returns in Lazios attack such as Castellanos recently recovered.

It is also worth noting 📰 that news indicates Lazio is almost fully equipped offensively after an important return, while Bologna still misses attackers Immobile and Dallinga, and their starting goalkeeper Skorupski is absent – negative factors for their defensive performance.

Therefore, my recommendation is to bet on the Lazio victory, taking advantage of their strong home advantage at the Stadio Olimpico combined with the recent tactical superiority demonstrated by coach Sarri.
The calculated expected value for this bet is above +5%, indicating a good opportunity! 💰⚽️

Looking for another bookie to bet on Lazio x Bologna?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2025, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Lazio x Bologna:

Analysis from Lazio x Bologna for the Italy Serie A – 7 of December

When the best bet on Lazio x Bologna is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1449456 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Latest news on the match between Lazio and Bologna

Lazio: Lazio, under Maurizio Sarris management, reestablished its offensive trio with the return of Taty Castellanos after a biceps injury, joining Gustav Isaksen and Mattia Zaccagni as the preferred attacking line; the team took the field with a 4-3-3 formation (Mandas; Marušić, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini; Guendouzi, Vecino, Basic; Isaksen, Castellanos, Zaccagni) in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals on December 4, when Zaccagni scored the decisive goal in the 1-0 victory over Milan. They will face Bologna in Serie A on December 7 at 18:00, dealing with injuries to Vitik (adductor, out for three weeks) and the unavailability of Rovella and Cataldi.

Bologna: Bologna suffered a 1-3 home defeat to Cremonese on December 1, 2025, with Orsolinis penalty being the only goal for the hosts, while Payero, Jamie Vardy, and a second goal from Orsolini (for the visiting team) sealed the defeat; goalkeeper Skorupski remained sidelined and veteran forward Ciro Immobile was still unavailable, but the team included the return of wingers Nicolò Cambiaghi and Jonathan Rowe and Jhon Lucumí in a four-man defense alongside Zortea, Casale, and Miranda, while Federico Ravaglia was in goal and the midfield featured Marco Moro, Bryan Pobega, and Orsolini, with Odgaard, Domínguez, and forward Santiago Castro leading the attack. The club will seek recovery in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals against Parma on December 4, 2025, and is also preparing for an Italian Supercup semi-final in Riyadh at the end of the month, with coach Vincenzo Italiano focused on fixing defensive errors and hoping for the return of both Immobile and forward Andrea Dallinga.

Table analysis for the match between Lazio and Bologna

Lazio: Lazio is in 8th place with 18 points, four points behind Bologna which is in 6th place. The gap to a team fighting for European competition spots is small, and they can catch up with a win. Therefore, this game is very important for Lazio, which is still trying to close the gap and compete for a spot in Europe.

Bologna: Bologna holds 6th place with 24 points, within the qualification zone for the Conference League. Although they are in the continental qualification zone, the difference to the 5th place is small, and the club can even improve its position with a victory. Thus, the match is crucial for Bologna to maintain or even improve its position on the table and secure a continental spot.

Summary: The match is important for both teams: Lazio wants to reduce the gap to the leaders to fight again for a spot in Europe, while Bologna aims to keep its position and secure participation in international competitions. A game full of emotions and intense competition at the top of the table! ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Lazio x Bologna

Should you bet on Lazio?

🔵 Lazio: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 31.11%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.65. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 310 times – profiting $511.50;
• And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$178.50.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 20.4% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.04. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 200 times – profiting $408.00;
• And would have lost other 800 times – with a loss of -$800.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$392.00.

Should you bet on Bologna?

🔴 Bologna: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 48.49%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 480 times – having a profit of $816.00;
• And would have lost other 520 times – with a loss of -$520.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$296.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Lazio x Bologna

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Lazio
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lazio x Bologna

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Lazio, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Lazio.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Bologna.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lazio x Bologna

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.