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Home Β» Predictions Β» Italy Serie A Β» Lazio x Fiorentina Betting tips for January 26 in Italy Serie A
Sunday, 26 January 2025, 19h45 Italy Serie A
Lazio Lazio
PREDICTION No tip
Fiorentina Fiorentina
Don't miss this prediction!

Lazio x Fiorentina Betting tips for January 26 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Lazio x Fiorentina, Sunday, 26/1/2025
πŸ“… 26/1/2025
19:45
Lazio Lazio
2.05
X
3.41
Fiorentina Fiorentina
3.50

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Lazio x Fiorentina:

πŸ‘Ž Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Lazio x Fiorentina

Some important points for the tip for Lazio x Fiorentina:

πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Fiorentina in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-290.0.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 3 matches as the home team, Lazio scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 3 matches as the away team, Fiorentina scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 5 matches as the home team against Fiorentina, Lazio scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Lazio x Fiorentina, with Lazio as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 5 matches as the home team, Lazio conceded at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the away team, Fiorentina conceded at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ Lazio has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Fiorentina playing at home.

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Summary

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Lazio x Fiorentina?

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Analysis from Lazio x Fiorentina for the Italy Serie A – 26 of January

🏟️ Lazio X Fiorentina – Italy Serie A
πŸ“… 26 of January, 2025 – 19:45
πŸ”΅ Lazio – Winning probability: 45.85% | Fair line: 2.18
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 28.56% | Fair line: 3.5
πŸ”΄ Fiorentina – Winning probability: 25.59% | Fair line: 3.91
βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: -0.5 Lazio
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Lazio and Fiorentina.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1251610 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Lazio x Fiorentina

Is it worth betting on Lazio?

πŸ”΅ Lazio: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 45.85% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.05. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 460 times – profiting $483.00;
  • And would have lost other 540 times – with a loss of -$540.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$57.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

βšͺ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.56% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.41. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 290 times – having a profit of $698.90;
  • And would lose other 710 times – having a loss of -$710.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of πŸ’°-$11.10.

Should you bet on Fiorentina?

πŸ”΄ Fiorentina: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 25.59% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 260 times – profiting $650.00;
  • And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$90.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Lazio x Fiorentina

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: -0.5 Lazio
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1Γ—2 market for Lazio x Fiorentina

βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Lazio and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Lazio.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1Γ—2 is on: -0.25 Lazio.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lazio x Fiorentina

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

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Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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