Lazio x Fiorentina Betting tips for January 7 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Lazio x Fiorentina, Wednesday, 7/1/2026

📅 7/1/2026 19:45

Lazio 2.11

X 3.20

Fiorentina 3.60

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Lazio x Fiorentina:

🔮 Lazio wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Lazio, you can win up to $1055.00!

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Important information for your tip for Lazio x Fiorentina:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Lazio in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-7.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Fiorentina in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Fiorentina, Lazio scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 Lazio matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Fiorentina conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Fiorentina as away team: it comes from 4 losses in a row in its last away matches.

🤖 What does ChatGPT have to say about our prediction for Lazio vs Fiorentina?

Lets analyze the match between Lazio and Fiorentina at the Stadio Olimpico, which is Lazios usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. Recent statistics show Lazio has a decent home performance with 2 wins, 2 draws, and only 1 loss in their last five home games. They score an average of 0.8 goals per game at home and concede about 0.6 goals, indicating a relatively solid defense.

Fiorentina, on the other hand, struggles away from home with no wins in their last five away matches (4 losses and 1 draw), conceding an average of nearly 2 goals per game outside their stadium. Despite this, in the current league they have a good overall performance with more wins than losses.

The median odds suggest a slight advantage for Lazio (2.1 vs 3.6 for Fiorentina), while the final adjusted odds show a greater balance between the teams (2.375 for Lazio and 3.2 for Fiorentina). Normalized implied probabilities from the median odds are approximately: Lazio win ~44%, draw ~22%, Fiorentina win ~17%. Considering Lazios better defensive stats at home and Fiorentinas weak away form, my adjusted estimate would be roughly: Lazio win ~50%, draw ~25%, Fiorentina win ~25%.

Converting these fair probabilities into odds gives approximate fair values of: Lazio @2.00, Draw @4.00, Fiorentina @4.00. Comparing with the markets final odds (Lazio @2.375; Draw @3.20; Fiorentina @3.20), I see value in betting on the home win because the bookmakers are offering higher odds than the fair value calculated from the current scenario.

Expected value:

• Lazio EV = ((2.375 / 2) -1)*100 = +18%
• Draw EV = ((3.20 /4) -1)*100 = -20%
• Fiorentina EV = ((3.20 /4) -1)*100= -20%

The analysis confirms that betting on Lazios victory has a positive expected value above the +5% threshold recommended for safe bets.

📰 News:
The recent defeat Lazio suffered against Napoli exposed some defensive weaknesses due to the absence of key players like Ndicka; however, the team is active in the transfer market seeking defensive reinforcements such as Fabio Fabbian and Samardzic — this indicates an effort to correct recent flaws.
Fiorentina comes motivated after beating Cremonese away 1-0 with a decisive goal in the final minutes — but still struggles in matches away from Artemio Franchi.
These news reinforce my view that despite recent difficulties, playing at the Stadio Olimpico gives Lazio a real advantage in this match.

📈 League position:
The team standings suggest a greater need for points from the visiting side (Fiorentina), but their poor away form weighs against them.
Lazio maintains stability playing at home and can exploit this favorable condition to gather important points in this direct confrontation.

Final analysis:

The Bets Kenya club model suggests a strong favoritism for the home win with a positive expected value (+19%), which I fully agree with! The model slightly underestimates the risk of a draw or even an upset by the visitors given their recent poor form.
Therefore, my recommended bet is:
Lazio to win – Expected Value +18%. It’s a good opportunity for those seeking safety combined with a fair potential return!

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Lazio x Fiorentina?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Lazio x Fiorentina, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Lazio x Fiorentina for the Italy Serie A – 7 of January

Latest news on the match between Lazio and Fiorentina

Lazio: Lazios recent 0-2 defeat to Napoli saw Maurizio Sarri set up a 4-3-3 with Provedel in goal, a defensive line consisting of Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, and Pellegrini, and a midfield trio formed by Guendouzi, Cataldi, and Basic, while the attacking trio included Cancellieri, Noslin, and Zaccagni; Castellanos was excluded from the squad. Off the field, the club is close to releasing French midfielder Youssouf Guendouzi to Fenerbahçe, and is actively seeking Bologna midfielder Fabio Fabbian – valued at around €15 million and praised for his age and modest salary – as well as Serbian defender Samardzic, and monitoring the availability of former Lazio defender Vavro and young defender Dragusin to strengthen a defense weakened by Ndickas absence.

Fiorentina: Fiorentina secured a 1-0 victory over Cremonese on January 4, 2026, at the Artemio Franchi Stadium, with Moise Kean scoring the decisive goal in the final minutes; coach Vincenzo Vanoli praised the win as “golden three points” to boost morale and later commented that Kean “didnt even need to be on the bench,” emphasizing the need to stay discreet and work hard after a tough week. The team played in a 4-1-4-1 formation with De Gea in goal, defenders Dodo, Comuzzo, Pongracic, and Ranieri, midfielder Fagioli, wide midfielders Parisi, Mandragora, Ndour, and Gudmundsson, and Roberto Piccoli as the lone striker. Before the match, Pablo Marì returned from an injury that kept him out since December 6 and was available for selection, while forward Fazzini remained unavailable after his last appearance on November 27. Historically, Fiorentina dominates the matchup, remaining undefeated in the previous twelve Serie A encounters and winning the last three home games.

Italy Serie A table analysis for Lazio x Fiorentina

Lazio: Lazio is in 9th place with 24 points, an intermediate position on the table. With a positive goal difference and a reasonable performance, the match against Fiorentina is important to try to get closer to the positions that guarantee a spot in European competitions, especially considering they are 6 points behind Como, which is in 6th place, the last to qualify for continental tournaments. Therefore, a victory could be an important step to climb the table and improve international qualification chances.

Fiorentina: Fiorentina is in 18th place, within the relegation zone, with 12 points, far from safety. The team is fighting to escape relegation and every point is crucial. This match is essential to try to react and leave the drop zone, aiming to earn points against direct rivals to stay in Serie A. The game is of utmost importance for the club to avoid dropping to the second division.

Summary: This game is very important for both teams: Lazio seeks to consolidate in the region that guarantees European spots, while Fiorentina fights to avoid relegation. A decisive clash with a lot at stake for both sides! ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Lazio x Fiorentina

When the best bet on Lazio x Fiorentina is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1460125 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is it a good idea to bet on Lazio?

🔵 Lazio: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 49.42% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.11. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 490 times – having a profit of $543.90;
• And would lose other 510 times – losing -$510.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$33.90.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 31.88% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 320 times – having a profit of $704.00;
• And would lose other 680 times – having a loss of -$680.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$24.00.

Should you bet on Fiorentina?

🔴 Fiorentina: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 18.7% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – profiting $494.00;
• And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$316.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Lazio x Fiorentina

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Lazio
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lazio x Fiorentina

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Lazio, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Lazio.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Fiorentina.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lazio x Fiorentina

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.