Lecce x Lazio Betting tips for December 21 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Lecce x Lazio, Saturday, 21/12/2024

📅 21/12/2024 19:45

Lecce 4.20

X 3.53

Lazio 1.85

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Lecce x Lazio:

🔮 Lazio wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Lazio, you can win up to $925.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Lecce x Lazio: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Lecce in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-10.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Lazio in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $690.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Lecce scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Lazio scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Lazio, Lecce scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Lecce x Lazio, with Lecce as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Lecce conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Lecce conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Lazio. 👉 Lecce has won all the last 3 matches playing at home against Lazio.

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Analysis from Lecce x Lazio for the Italy Serie A – 21 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Lecce x Lazio right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1238880 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Lecce x Lazio

Should you bet on Lecce?

🔵 Lecce: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 10.08%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 100 times – having a profit of $320.00;
• And would lose other 900 times – having a loss of -$900.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$580.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 19.23% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.53. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $480.70;
• And would lose other 810 times – losing -$810.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$329.30.

Is betting on Lazio worth it?

🔴 Lazio: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 70.69% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.85. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 710 times – this would give you a profit of $603.50
• And would lose other 290 times – having a loss of -$290.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$313.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Lecce x Lazio

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Lecce
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lecce x Lazio

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Lecce, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Lecce.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Lazio.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lecce x Lazio

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.