Lecce x Monza Betting tips for December 15 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Lecce x Monza, Sunday, 15/12/2024

📅 15/12/2024 11:30

Lecce 2.20

X 3.20

Monza 3.45

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Lecce x Monza:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Lecce x Monza

The main points for the tip for Lecce x Monza: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Lecce in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-270.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Monza in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-160.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Lecce scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Monza, Lecce scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Lecce matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Monza conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Lecce has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Monza playing at home.

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Analysis from Lecce x Monza for the Italy Serie A – 15 of December

When the best bet on Lecce x Monza is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1236700 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Lecce x Monza

Should you bet on Lecce?

🔵 Lecce: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 38.38% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 380 times – profiting $456.00;
• And would have lost other 620 times – with a loss of -$620.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$164.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 28.39%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $616.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$104.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Monza?

🔴 Monza: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 33.22% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.45. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 330 times – this would give you a profit of $808.50
• And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$138.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Lecce x Monza

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Lecce
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lecce x Monza

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Lecce, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Lecce.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Monza.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lecce x Monza

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.