Napoli x AC Milan Betting tips for March 30 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Napoli x AC Milan, Sunday, 30/3/2025

📅 30/3/2025
18:45

Napoli
1.93

X
3.60

AC Milan

3.80

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Napoli x AC Milan:

🔮 Napoli wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Napoli, you can win up to $965.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com

Some important points for the tip for Napoli x AC Milan:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $28.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on AC Milan in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-150.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Napoli scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, AC Milan scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 AC Milan matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Napoli conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, AC Milan conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Napoli conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against AC Milan.

Summary

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Napoli x AC Milan?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Napoli x AC Milan, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Napoli x AC Milan for the Italy Serie A – 30 of March

🏟️ Napoli X AC Milan – Italy Serie A
📅 30 of March, 2025 – 18:45
🔵 Napoli – Winning probability: 62.21% | Fair line: 1.61
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 21.88% | Fair line: 4.57
🔴 AC Milan – Winning probability: 15.91% | Fair line: 6.28
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Napoli
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks

When the best bet on Napoli x AC Milan is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1291320 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Napoli x AC Milan

Is it a good idea to bet on Napoli?

🔵 Napoli: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 62.21% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.93. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would hit 620 times – this would give you a profit of $576.60
And would lose other 380 times – losing -$380.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$196.60.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 21.88% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $572.00;
And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$208.00.

Is betting on AC Milan worth it?

🔴 AC Milan: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 15.91% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

Would hit 160 times – this would give you a profit of $448.00
And would have lost other 840 times – with a loss of -$840.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$392.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Napoli x AC Milan

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Napoli
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Napoli x AC Milan

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Napoli, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Napoli.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 AC Milan.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Napoli x AC Milan

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.