Napoli x Juventus Betting tips for December 7 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Napoli x Juventus, Sunday, 7/12/2025

📅 7/12/2025 19:45

Napoli 2.41

X 3.10

Juventus 3.02

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Napoli x Juventus:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Napoli x Juventus

The main points for the tip for Napoli x Juventus:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-138.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Juventus in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-132.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Napoli scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Juventus scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Juventus, Napoli scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Napoli x Juventus, with Napoli as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Juventus conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Napoli conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Juventus.
👉 In the last 3 road matches, Juventus has not lost any of them.
👉 Napoli has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Juventus.

🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for Napoli vs Juventus:

Lets analyze the match between Napoli and Juventus at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napolis home ground, which has shown strength playing at home with 3 wins and no losses in the last 5 home games. The home team has a higher average of goals scored (3 goals per game in the last 5 home matches) compared to Juventus away (1.2 goals per game). Additionally, Napoli maintains good ball possession (54%) and creates more offensive chances with a higher average of accurate shots.

On the other hand, Juventus is in a solid away form without recent league defeats (0 losses in the last 5 games), but suffers a bit more defensively with a higher average of goals conceded. The visiting team also commits a high volume of fouls and receives yellow cards, which may indicate an aggressive stance or defensive difficulties.

📰 News: Napoli faces serious midfield and defensive problems due to key injuries like Lobotka, Anguissa, and De Bruyne still recovering; additionally, goalkeeper Meret has been out since October. This could negatively impact their defensive consistency despite the forced rotation by coach Conte to maintain competitiveness. Juventus has lost Vlahovic to surgery until March but maintains good recent form under Spallettis management.

📈 Table analysis: Both teams are fighting hard at the top of the Italian table — Napoli tied at the top with Milan after a dramatic victory in the Coppa Italia; Juventus seeks to maintain a positive streak to avoid losing direct contact with the leaders. This need increases motivation on both sides to seek a positive result in this direct confrontation.

Based on median odds, the implied normalized probabilities are: Napoli win ~40%, draw ~32%, Juventus win ~28%. Considering Napolis superior offensive stats at home despite being short-handed, combined with the stadium factor where they usually play (Stadio Diego Armando Maradona is truly their arena), my adjusted estimate gives a slight advantage to the Napoli team: home_pred_gpt = 42%, draw_pred_gpt = 30%, away_pred_gpt = 28%.

Thus, the fair odds would be approximately: home_pred_odds_gpt ≈ 2.38; draw_pred_odds_gpt ≈ 3.33; away_pred_odds_gpt ≈ 3.57.

Analyzing the final odds offered by bookmakers: home win is quoted at 2.4 (almost fair), draw around 3 (slightly below fair), and away win at 3.3 — value below the fair suggested by the analysis (~3.57). This indicates potentially interesting value in betting on a draw or even the away win if one wants to take a risk given Juventuss recent good form away.

Expected value calculations show that no bet has EV above +5% considering my fair odds versus the final odds from bookmakers — so there is no clear positive expected value bet here according to my adjusted model.

Final suggestion: I partially agree with the Bets Kenya model that suggests caution in betting on this game as it indicates a negative EV for straight wins and a small positive EV only on the draw (+2.65%). My analysis reinforces this conservative view but highlights that tactical balance combined with injuries weigh against clear favorites – so betting on the draw might be a valid strategy for those seeking moderate safety without big risks 🚀⚽️

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Napoli x Juventus?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2025, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Napoli x Juventus:

Analysis from Napoli x Juventus for the Italy Serie A – 7 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Napoli x Juventus right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1449456 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Latest news about Napoli x Juventus

Napoli: Napoli, under coach Luciano Conte, entered an intense phase in early December 2025, with a series of injuries affecting the midfield and defense – midfielder Stanislav Lobotka began a rehabilitation program after a minor setback, while Anguissa and De Bruyne are still recovering from serious muscle injuries, and forward Gilmour underwent surgery in London due to pubalgia; additionally, forward José Gutiérrez is recovering from an ankle sprain, and goalkeeper Alex Meret remains out after fracturing the second metatarsal of his right foot in October. Despite the absences, Conte announced a rotating lineup for the upcoming Serie A match against Juventus, and confirmed that the club expects Lobotka to return for the Champions League clash against Benfica later in the week. In the Coppa Italia, Napoli advanced to the quarter-finals after a dramatic penalty shootout against Cagliari that required twenty penalties, tying them with Milan at the top of Serie A. The club’s latest signing, Lorenzo Lucca, who arrived on loan with an obligatory purchase clause valued at 35 million euros, has struggled to win over fans after missing a goal in the cup match, eliciting mixed reactions from supporters. Conte emphasized that the current rotation is “necessary” and that the squad will need to create key chances in upcoming games to pursue the title.

Juventus: Juventus continued their good form in December 2025, starting the Coppa Italia round of 16 on December 2 with a 2-0 victory over Udinese – an own goal by Palma and a penalty converted by Locatelli secured the win – following a recent 2-1 league victory against Cagliari; coach Massimiliano Spalletti kept most starters, playing in a 3-4-2-1 formation with Bisseck, De Vrij, and Carlos Augusto in defense, while midfielder Gatti had to leave early against Udinese due to injury, and forward Dusan Vlahovic, who suffered a serious injury in the match against Cagliari, underwent successful surgery in London and is expected to return only in mid-March. The club also confirmed plans to renew the contract of promising defender Yildiz, as highlighted by Giorgio Chiellini.

Table analysis for the match between Napoli and Juventus

Napoli: Napoli is in 2nd place in the table with 28 points, just 1 point behind the leader AC Milan. The match against Juventus is crucial for the club to stay in the title race and even take the lead, as the gap is minimal. Additionally, a victory would further strengthen their spot in the Champions League. Therefore, this game is decisive for Napolis high ambitions in the final stretch of the season.

Juventus: Juventus is in 7th place with 23 points, outside the direct qualification zone for the Champions League and Europa League. For the team, this match is important to try to get closer to the G6 and perhaps secure a spot in the Conference League. Every point gained is valuable to keep hopes alive for international competition qualification. The game, therefore, is quite important for Juventus to keep this fight alive.

Summary: The Napoli vs Juventus match is important for both teams: Napoli aims to lead the championship and secure their spot in the Champions League, while Juventus fights to get closer to international spots. A game promising strong emotions and a direct impact on the table! ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Napoli x Juventus

Should you bet on Napoli?

🔵 Napoli: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 37.54%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.41. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 380 times – this would give you a profit of $535.80
• And would lose other 620 times – having a loss of -$620.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$84.20.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 31.6%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $672.00
• And would have lost other 680 times – with a loss of -$680.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$8.00.

Is it worth betting on Juventus?

🔴 Juventus: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.86% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.02. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 310 times – having a profit of $626.20;
• And would lose other 690 times – having a loss of -$690.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$63.80. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Handicaps analysis for the match Napoli x Juventus

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Napoli
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Napoli x Juventus

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Napoli, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Napoli.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Napoli x Juventus

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.