Napoli x Parma Betting tips for August 31 in Italy Serie A
| 📅 31/8/2024 15:45 |
 Napoli1.47 |
X 4.39 |
Parma  6.00 |
This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Napoli x Parma:
🔮 Napoli wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Napoli, you can win up to $735.00!
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Important information for your tip for Napoli x Parma: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-44.0. |
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Analysis from Napoli x Parma for the Italy Serie A – 31 of August
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🏟️ Napoli X Parma – Italy Serie A |
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Napoli and Parma.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1170907 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Napoli x Parma
Is betting on Napoli worth it?
🔵 Napoli: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 85.12% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.47. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 850 times – profiting $399.50;
- And would have lost other 150 times – with a loss of -$150.00 because of them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$249.50.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 10.78% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.39. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 110 times – having a profit of $372.90;
- And would lose other 890 times – losing -$890.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$517.10.
Should you bet on Parma?
🔴 Parma: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 4.1% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 40 times – having a profit of $200.00;
- And would lose other 960 times – having a loss of -$960.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$760.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Napoli x Parma
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Napoli
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Napoli x Parma
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Napoli and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 Napoli.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 Parma.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Napoli x Parma
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.
