Napoli x Roma Betting tips for February 15 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Napoli x Roma, Sunday, 15/2/2026

📅 15/2/2026 19:45

Napoli 2.21

X 3.05

Roma 3.45

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Napoli x Roma:

🔮 Roma wins the match
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The main points for the tip for Napoli x Roma:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-160.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-138.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Napoli scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Roma, Napoli scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 Roma matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Napoli conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Napoli has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Roma playing at home.

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Napoli vs Roma:

Lets analyze the match between Napoli and Roma at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, home of Napoli, which has a recent record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 home games, scoring an average of 2.4 goals per match and conceding the same. Roma has a balanced away performance: also with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five away games, averaging about one goal per game.

📈 In the league table, Napoli is in third place with a good lead over the relegation zone and aims to get closer to the leaders to secure a Champions League spot. Roma is just behind in fourth position, trying to stay firm to avoid losing ground in this direct fight for European qualification. This indicates both teams are highly motivated to seek victory.

📰 Recent news shows Napoli is in a positive moment under coach Antonio Conte, with young players gaining space in the squad and maintaining good offensive form despite conceding some goals. Roma faces internal financial challenges that could impact their squad but has promising offensive reinforcements like Donyell Malen to try to surprise away from home.

Analyzing the median odds (Napoli: 2.21; Draw: 3.04; Roma: 3.45), we have approximately normalized implied probabilities:

• Napoli Win ~43%
• Draw ~31%
• Roma Win ~26%

Based on recent offensive/defensive stats (goals scored/conceded), slightly favoring Napoli in possession (54% vs. 53%), higher average volume of shots by the home team (14 vs. 11), but a vulnerable defense (12 goals conceded in recent games), I estimate fair probabilities close to these implied odds but giving a slight edge to the balance between home team win or draw due to both sides offensive strength.

Calculating adjusted fair odds considering tactical context and news:

• Napoli Win: estimated fair odds around 2.30
• Draw: estimated fair odds around 3.10
• Roma Win: estimated fair odds around 3.20

The Bets Kenya model analysis indicates a positive expected value only for the away team win (Roma) with EV +31%, suggesting a bet on this outcome despite the higher final odds offered by bookmakers (~3.5). I partially agree because I see value in a possible Roma upset given their recent offensive capacity combined with Napolis defensive difficulties.

However, its important to highlight that playing at Diego Armando Maradona Stadium gives Napoli a strong psychological advantage due to intense local support — something hard to quantify statistically — which can further balance the chances, making a draw or even a Napoli win safe bets depending on the bettors profile.

Final suggestion:
Betting on Romas victory can be interesting seeking high value (+31% EV calculated by the model). But those who prefer safety might also consider betting on the Double Chance Market Draw/Roma, ensuring protection against surprises.
The game promises to be open ⚽🔥!

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Analysis from Napoli x Roma for the Italy Serie A – 15 of February

Latest news about Napoli x Roma

Napoli: Napoli continued its strong campaign in Serie A under the management of Antonio Conte, securing a dramatic 3-2 victory over Genoa on February 7, 2026, thanks to a penalty in the 95th minute after Juan Jesus received a red card, with Rasmus Winther Hojlund converting the decisive penalty; the team now sits in third place with 46 points, nine behind leaders Inter and three ahead of Roma, maintaining a +6 margin over the relegation zone and a solid financial position after closing the 2025-26 fiscal year with €174 million in cash and €190 million in equity. Additionally, the squad has begun integrating promising options from the bench, such as Brazilian midfielders Giovane and Alisson Santos, the latter already impressing with decisive goals coming off the bench in recent Champions League matches.

Roma: AS Roma is navigating a crucial phase both on and off the field: the club has imposed a strict salary cap for the upcoming season, aiming to limit player salaries to around €4 million and reduce total payroll to approximately 60% of revenue, which has put contract renewals for Lorenzo Pellegrini and Paulo Dybala at risk unless they accept reduced terms. Negotiations continue for Zeki Çelik (seeking an agreement close to €4 million despite the club’s 25% cap) and veteran El Shaarawy, who is willing to accept a significant salary cut. Meanwhile, the potential return of former captain Francesco Totti to a management role during the Friedkin era is sparking debate among fans, with the exact position still undefined. On the pitch, coach Gian Piero Gasperini praised the impact of new striker Donyell Malen after a commanding victory over Cagliari, highlighting that the match was played without any VAR intervention, and he is also preparing a high-level offensive trio — Malen, Dybala, and Matías Soulé — to boost Roma’s quest for Champions League qualification.

Table analysis for the match between Napoli and Roma

Napoli: The match against Roma is super important for Napoli! Currently in 3rd place, the team holds a spot in the Champions League, one of the main goals of the season. Maintaining this position or even climbing the table is crucial to secure direct qualification. A win in this game can provide a breather and solidify the team among the leaders, keeping important distances from the opponents just behind.

Roma: For Roma, which is in 5th place and also dreams of securing a spot in the Champions League or at least the Europa League, this match carries huge weight. Beating Napoli means not only getting closer to the dream of going to the Champions but also eliminating a direct rival in this tight race. Every point counts in this stretch, and this game could be the difference for the team to dream big again this season.

Summary: This match is very important for both teams, as it involves direct competition for spots in the Champions League and Europa League. Combining technique with desire will be essential to leave with the three points! ⚽🔥

How the handicap and odds moved for Napoli x Roma

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Napoli x Roma.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Napoli x Roma

When the best bet on Napoli x Roma is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1479336 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is it a good idea to bet on Napoli?

🔵 Napoli: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 31.38% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.21. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 310 times – profiting $375.10;
• And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$314.90.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 31.13% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.05. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 310 times – having a profit of $635.50;
• And would lose other 690 times – having a loss of -$690.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$54.50.

Should you bet on Roma?

🔴 Roma: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 37.49%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.45. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 370 times – this would give you a profit of $906.50
• And would have lost other 630 times – with a loss of -$630.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$276.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Napoli x Roma

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Napoli
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Napoli x Roma

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Napoli and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Napoli.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Roma.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Napoli x Roma

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for Napoli x Roma