Pisa x Parma Betting tips for December 8 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Pisa x Parma, Monday, 8/12/2025

📅 8/12/2025 14:00

Pisa 2.40

X 3.00

Parma 3.16

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Pisa x Parma:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Pisa x Parma

Some important points for the tip for Pisa x Parma:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Pisa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-270.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Parma in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-130.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Parma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 Pisa matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 Parma matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Parma conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Pisa vs Parma:

Lets analyze the match between Pisa and Parma at Arena Garibaldi, which is Pisas official stadium, thus ensuring the home advantage for them. Pisa has shown a modest performance at home, with a very low average of goals scored (0) and also conceding few goals (0), but with a lower ball possession (45%) and more shots against than on target. Meanwhile, Parma, even playing away, averages 1 goal scored per game and concedes about 1 goal, but their possession is even lower (38%), indicating difficulties in controlling the game.

The median odds indicate a slight advantage for Pisa with 2.4 for their win against 3.16 for Parma and a draw at 3. After normalizing the implied probabilities from the median odds, we get approximately: Pisa win ~42%, draw ~33%, Parma win ~25%. Considering recent team statistics — such as Pisas squad issues with several key absences and a reduced squad — and Parmas recent elimination from the Coppa Italia which might motivate a strong recovery in this game, I adjust the probabilities to roughly: Pisa win ~40%, draw ~35%, Parma win ~25%.

Calculating the fair odds based on these adjusted probabilities, we have:

• Pisa: 1 / 0.40 = 2.5
• Draw: 1 / 0.35 = 2.86
• Parma: 1 / 0.25 = 4

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers (Pisa – 2.4; Draw – 3; Parma – 3.3), we see positive value mainly in the away win odds, which is underestimated by the market compared to my fair prediction (~4). However, the Bets Kenya model predicts an even higher odds for the away win (~3.79) but calculates a negative expected value (-12%), suggesting caution.

Recommended Bet: Despite the recent difficulties of both teams, I see value in betting on a draw or even a small chance for the away win due to Parmas tough but motivating situation after recent elimination from the Coppa Italia.
The highest expected value calculated was for the draw (+7% considering my fair odds vs. final odds), so that would be my main suggestion.

📰 News:
Pisa faces serious squad issues with several unavailable players including Cuadrado injured; Parma comes from an elimination defeat but can use this as extra motivation in Serie A.
These factors reinforce my probability adjustments, giving a slight edge to the balance between the teams.

📈 Table analysis:
Both are fighting away from the top positions and need to score urgently to avoid relegation or a dangerous mid-table zone – this increases the chance of a more cautious game where draws are common.

Overall, I partially agree with the Bets Kenya model regarding the higher chances given to the home team but disagree about there being no value in bets on draws or away wins – I do see opportunities especially in the draw market given the risk/reward ratio presented here! ⚽💰

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Analysis from Pisa x Parma for the Italy Serie A – 8 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Pisa x Parma right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1449456 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news about Pisa x Parma

Pisa: Pisa, managed by former Italy striker Alberto Gilardino, is at the bottom of Serie A after a recent loss to Inter that ended a six-match unbeaten streak, and faces a demanding period of three matches in fifteen days – hosting Parma on December 8, before two consecutive away games against Lecce and another opponent – while dealing with a reduced squad, with Cuadrado out due to a biceps problem, Vural, Denoon, Esteves, Lusuardi, and Stengs unavailable or under assessment, Semper with a virus, and Cuadrado absent, although young forward Akinsanmiro has recovered quickly from a shoulder dislocation and should be fit for the match against Parma.

Parma: Parma was eliminated from the Coppa Italia after a 2-1 defeat to Bologna on December 4, 2025, and will look to recover in Serie A when they host Pisa on December 8, 2025, with a provisional 3-5-2 formation featuring Corvi in goal, Delprato, Troilo, and Lovik in defense, a midfield trio of Britschgi, Bernabé, and Keita, with Estevez and Valeri on the wings, and Pellegrino and Djuric leading the attack under coach Carlos Cuesta; the club faces several injury issues – including the sidelining of forward Estevez – while transfer rumors focus on young winger Ange-Yoan Bonny, who seems close to a move to Inter Milan, with the possible inclusion of Sebastiano Esposito in the deal, valued between €8 and 10 million.

Table analysis for the match between Pisa x Parma

Pisa: This match is very important for Pisa, which is in 18th place, within the relegation zone, with only 10 points. With few points earned and facing the threat of relegation to a lower division, winning is essential to try to escape the relegation zone. Every point gained can be decisive for staying in Serie A, so the team cannot afford to slip up. ⚠️

Parma: Parma is also fighting against relegation, occupying 17th place with 11 points, just one point ahead of Pisa. Therefore, this match is crucial for Parma to distance itself from the drop zone and gain momentum in the competition. Losing this game could mean sinking even further in the table. It’s a direct confrontation that weighs heavily on its future in Serie A. 🔥

Summary: The game is extremely important for both teams, as it’s a direct clash at the bottom of the table that can determine who advances or remains threatened by relegation. A victory here is very valuable for survival in the competition! ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Pisa x Parma

Is it a good idea to bet on Pisa?

🔵 Pisa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 40.39% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 400 times – this would give you a profit of $560.00
• And would lose other 600 times – losing -$600.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$40.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 33.24%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 330 times – having a profit of $660.00;
• And would lose other 670 times – losing -$670.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$10.00.

Is betting on Parma worth it?

🔴 Parma: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.37%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.16. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 260 times – this would give you a profit of $561.60
• And would lose other 740 times – having a loss of -$740.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$178.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Pisa x Parma

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Pisa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Pisa x Parma

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Pisa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Pisa.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Pisa.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Pisa x Parma

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.