Roma x Cremonese Betting tips for February 22 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Roma x Cremonese, Sunday, 22/2/2026

📅 22/2/2026 19:45

Roma 1.36

X 4.50

Cremonese 8.50

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Roma x Cremonese:

🔮 Cremonese wins the match
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Some important points for the tip for Roma x Cremonese:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $30.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Cremonese in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Cremonese, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Roma matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Cremonese conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Cremonese as away team: it comes from 4 losses in a row in its last away matches.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Roma vs Cremonese?

Lets analyze the match between Roma and Cremonese at the Stadio Olimpico, which is Romas official stadium, ensuring their traditional home advantage. Roma has shown solid home performance in recent matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored per game and only 0.8 conceded, along with a dominant ball possession (57%). Cremonese, on the other hand, faces clear difficulties away from home, with an average of less than 0.2 goals scored and over 1.8 goals conceded per game outside their stadium.

The median odds indicate a clear favoritism for Roma to win (1.36), with a draw (4.5) and Cremonese win (8.5) as less likely options according to betting houses.

Calculating the implied probabilities from the median odds gives us: Roma win ~73%, draw ~22%, Cremonese win ~12%. Normalizing to a total of 100%, we adjust to approximately: Roma 66%, Draw 20%, Cremonese 14%.

Recent statistical data analysis — especially Romas offensive dominance in shots (15 per game vs. only 9 for the opponent) and their defensive solidity — suggests a fair estimate of probabilities close to: Roma victory around 65-70%, a draw near 20%, and Cremonese victory below 15%. This confirms that fair odds should be close to the current median odds.

Furthermore, considering key injuries in Roma such as Wesley being rested for future games but Dybala already available in training, and the absences in Cremonese that weaken their defensive sector, further reinforce Romas favoritism.

Expected value:

• Betting on Romas victory does not offer significant positive value as the final odds are very close to the fair calculated ones;
• Betting on a draw or Cremoneses win does not seem advantageous given their recent poor performance;
• However, our model indicates positive value only on the away win bet with EV +14%, likely underestimating Cremoneses limited offensive capacity away from home;

Conclusion:

A safe bet is to wager on the strength of the Roma team playing at their historic stadium, Stadio Olimpico 🏟️, where they have broad technical-tactical dominance 📈. The model slightly overestimates the visitors chance; I would advise caution even with the positive EV suggested by the model.

📰 Recent news shows that despite some absences in Roma, they maintain almost full strength, while Cremonese suffers significant defensive losses — further supporting my favorable guess for the home team.

📈 In the standings, both teams are in different positions — pressure for points clearly favors an aggressive stance from Roma to stay in the top spots, while Cremonese fights relegation without consistent results away.

Final tip: Bet on Romas victory, as it offers the greatest statistical security combined with the current team context! ⚽🔥

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Analysis from Roma x Cremonese for the Italy Serie A – 22 of February

Latest news on the match between Roma and Cremonese

Roma: The Roma squad enters the 26th round with several important updates: Wesleys ankle injury, caused in the match against Napoli, has been ruled out for fractures, but the club decided to rest him in the next match against Cremonense to preserve him for the high-profile game following against Juventus; meanwhile, the tests on Paulo Dybalas knee are clear and he has already returned to training, and forward Koné has fully recovered from a recent muscle injury. The injury list also includes forward Dovbyk, who is expected to return only in the 32nd round, while defender Ferguson and forward El Shaarawy are still under evaluation and are doubtful for the game against Cremonense. No Roma players are suspended for this round. Off the field, former captain Francesco Totti confirmed that talks are ongoing about a possible role as an advisor at the club, suggesting a near return.

Cremonense: Cremonense has recently been in the news after an Inter supporter threw a flare that stunned goalkeeper Emil Audero during the home match against Inter on February 1st, resulting in a four-year (DASPO) ban for the supporter and additional sanctions for two other Inter fans; the club also faced a wave of disciplinary actions after the December 28th game, with several fans receiving DASPO and police recording multiple reports. On the sporting side, Cremonense enters the next Serie A round with three players sidelined – defender Luca Collocolo will be out until at least the 29th round, while midfielder Samuel Faye and full-back Gianmarco Ceccherini are unavailable until the 27th – but no players are currently suspended. However, three squad members – Davide Bondo, Matteo Vardy, and Francesco Terracciano – have been included in the official “diffida” list before upcoming matches. The team has a Serie A fixture against Genoa on February 15th (broadcast by DAZN) after the recent 1-0 defeat to Inter, and will look to recover as the season progresses.

Table analysis for the match between Roma x Cremonese

Roma: Roma is currently in 4th place with 47 points, securing a spot in next seasons Champions League. With a 3-point lead over 5th place Juventus, this game is important for Roma to maintain its position among the teams qualifying for the most prestigious European competitions. Being close to the top and still having a chance to climb the rankings, the match against Cremonese is decisive for consolidating or even improving their final position in the league.

Cremonese: Cremonese is in 16th place with 24 points, in the danger zone close to relegation, as the team in 18th place has 21 points and is in the relegation zone. This game is very important for Cremonese, which needs to earn points to move away from the drop zone and secure its stay in Serie A. Every point is valuable for this team in the fight against relegation, so the match against Roma is crucial for their aspirations to stay in Italian footballs top tier.

Summary: The game is of high importance for both teams: Roma seeks to secure and possibly improve its spot in the Champions League, while Cremonese fights to escape relegation. An encounter promising excitement and intense competition! ⚽🔥

Odds and handicap movements for Roma x Cremonese

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Roma x Cremonese.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Roma x Cremonese

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Roma x Cremonese right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1484106 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Should you bet on Roma?

🔵 Roma: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 71.43% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.36. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 710 times – having a profit of $255.60;
• And would lose other 290 times – having a loss of -$290.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$34.40.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 17.69% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 180 times – having a profit of $630.00;
• And would lose other 820 times – having a loss of -$820.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$190.00.

Is betting on Cremonese worth it?

🔴 Cremonese: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 10.88% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 8.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 110 times – profiting $825.00;
• And would lose other 890 times – losing -$890.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$65.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Roma x Cremonese

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Roma
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Roma x Cremonese

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.5 Roma and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.25 Roma.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.25 Roma.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Roma x Cremonese

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Roma x Cremonese