Roma x Genoa Betting tips for December 29 in Italy Serie A
| 📅 29/12/2025 19:45 |
 Roma1.60 |
X 3.60 |
Genoa  6.00 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Roma x Genoa:
🔮 Roma wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Roma, you can win up to $800.00!
The main points for the tip for Roma x Genoa:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $180.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $155.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Genoa, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 Genoa matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Genoa conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Roma has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Genoa playing at home.
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Analysis from Roma x Genoa for the Italy Serie A – 29 of December
🏟️ Roma X Genoa – Italy Serie A
📅 29 of December, 2025 – 19:45
🔵 Roma – Winning probability: 71.34% | Fair line: 1.4
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 18.69% | Fair line: 5.35
🔴 Genoa – Winning probability: 9.97% | Fair line: 10.03
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Roma
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks
When the best bet on Roma x Genoa is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1456398 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Roma x Genoa
Is betting on Roma worth it?
🔵 Roma: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 71.34% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 710 times – profiting $426.00;
- And would have lost other 290 times – with a loss of -$290.00 because of them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$136.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 18.69% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $494.00;
- And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$316.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Genoa?
🔴 Genoa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 9.97% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 100 times – having a profit of $500.00;
- And would lose other 900 times – having a loss of -$900.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$400.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Roma x Genoa
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Roma
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Roma x Genoa
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Roma and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 Roma.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 Genoa.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Roma x Genoa
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
