Roma x Juventus Betting tips for March 1 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Roma x Juventus, Sunday, 1/3/2026

📅 1/3/2026 19:45

Roma 2.60

X 3.10

Juventus 2.70

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Roma x Juventus:

🔮 Juventus wins the match
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Important information for your tip for Roma x Juventus:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-7.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Juventus in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-362.0.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Juventus, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Roma x Juventus, with Roma as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 Juventus matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Juventus conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Roma has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Juventus playing at home.
👉 It is not a good time for Juventus as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Roma vs Juventus:

Lets analyze the showdown between Roma and Juventus at the Stadio Olimpico, which is Romas traditional home, a stadium with a capacity of over 70,000 fans and a vibrant atmosphere for important matches. ⚽️

📈 Roma arrives with a solid home performance: scored 10 goals in the last 5 games at their stadium, conceded only 4 goals, and won 3 of these matches. Additionally, they have a higher ball possession average (56%) and more effective shots (15 per game) compared to Juventus away. Juventus shows defensive weaknesses outside their home ground, conceding many goals (12 in the last 5 away games), despite maintaining a reasonable average of goals scored (8). This indicates that the visiting defense can be exploited by Romas offense.

📰 Recent news reports that Roma benefits from the return of striker El Shaarawy and hopes to have Matia Soule back despite a mild pubalgia; however, they are still waiting for Dybalas definitive return. Juventus faces off-field financial issues that could impact the team’s internal environment, along with recent defensive lapses highlighted in the loss against Como. The starting goalkeeper is under question, and there is pressure on coach Spalletti to restore the team’s competitive spirit.

Analyzing the median odds provided by betting houses: Romas victory is around 2.6; a draw at about 3.1; Juventus victory around 2.7 – quite balanced odds but slightly favoring the home team.

After normalizing the implied probabilities of the median odds, we get something close to:

• Roma victory: ~38%
• Draw: ~31%
• Juventus victory: ~31%

Based on combined statistical data and recent news — especially the visiting defensive issues and local offensive reinforcements — my estimate adjusts this probability to favor Roma even more (~42%), keeping the draw (~30%), and reducing the visitors chance (~28%). This suggests fair odds lower for Romas victory (~2.38) compared to current market offerings.

Looking at the expected value in the final odds:

• Bet on Romas victory shows moderate positive EV;
• Bet on a draw shows no value;
• Bet on Juventuss victory has negative EV due to current club risks.

Therefore, I partially agree with the Bets Kenya Club model indicating value in betting on the visiting team (+7% EV), but my analysis suggests caution due to recent internal issues at Juventus — I would recommend betting on Roma for greater security given the current tactical and technical context + strong home advantage + positive local news.

Final tip: Bet on Romas victory, taking advantage of the best technical conditions combined with massive support at the Stadio Olimpico! 🏟️🔥

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Analysis from Roma x Juventus for the Italy Serie A – 1 of March

Latest news on Roma x Juventus

Roma: Roma is preparing for the Serie A clash against Juventus on March 1st, with attacking midfielder Matia Soule expected to be cleared to play after a short rest period despite a persistent pubalgia, while forward El Shaarawy has rejoined the squad after more than a month away. Paulo Dybala continues to recover from a knee inflammation but has not yet set a definitive return date, and Hermoso remains under observation after avoiding a tendon injury. Coach José Gasperini aims to strengthen the attack for forward Nicolás Malen before the match and awaits the announcement of Romas opponent in the European competition in the upcoming draw.

Juventus: Juventus is facing financial and sporting challenges: the club recorded a loss of €2.5 million over the six-month period ending December 31, 2025, a decrease from the €16.9 million profit of the previous year, influenced by an €8 million compensation to former coach Massimiliano Tudor and higher wages for new coach Luciano Spalletti, as well as pending fines of €657,000 for previous accounting irregularities and a contract renewal for forward Yıldız that underscores the clubs commitment to a competitive squad. On the field, the Bianconeri suffered a 0-2 defeat to Como on February 21, 2026, a match marked by costly errors from goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio, leading to calls for a new starting goalkeeper, with Tottenhams Guglielmo Vicario as the main candidate. The midfield also drew attention, as Galatasaray expressed interest in acquiring midfielder Ryan Koopmeiners after his impressive performance with two goals in Istanbul. Internally, Spallettis position remains under review, despite public support from former captain Giorgio Chiellini and general manager Damien Comolli emphasizing continuity as essential for future success, a theme reinforced by club legend Claudio Marchisio, who urged the squad to recover their fighting spirit before the Champions League match against Galatasaray.

Italy Serie A table analysis for Roma x Juventus

Roma: This match is very important for Roma, which is in 4th place with 50 points, in the direct qualification zone for the Champions League. Roma needs to earn points to secure this spot, as they are just above Juventus, which is in 5th with 46 points. Winning this game against a direct rival can increase the advantage and ensure staying in the top four, which is crucial for a team aiming to participate in the main European competition.

Juventus: Juventus also has a lot to gain in this match, as they are in 5th place with 46 points, trying to catch Roma and secure a spot in the Champions League group stage or at least avoid dropping into the UEFA Europa League zone. The four-point difference makes this direct confrontation decisive for the clubs European ambitions this season. Therefore, a victory here could be a crucial step for Juventus to regain ground.

Summary: The game is very important for both teams, as it involves a direct fight for Champions League spots. The match could determine who stays at the top of the table and secures the highly desired European spot for the next season. ⚽🔥

Odds and handicap movements for Roma x Juventus

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Roma x Juventus.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Roma x Juventus

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Roma x Juventus right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1488452 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Should you bet on Roma?

🔵 Roma: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 37.67% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 380 times – having a profit of $608.00;
• And would lose other 620 times – losing -$620.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$12.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 26.44% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 260 times – profiting $546.00;
• And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$194.00.

Is betting on Juventus worth it?

🔴 Juventus: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 35.89%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.70. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 360 times – having a profit of $612.00;
• And would have lost other 640 times – with a loss of -$640.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$28.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Roma x Juventus

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Roma
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Roma x Juventus

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Roma and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Roma.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Roma x Juventus

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for Roma x Juventus