Sassuolo x Atalanta Betting tips for March 1 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Sassuolo x Atalanta, Sunday, 1/3/2026

📅 1/3/2026 14:00

Sassuolo 3.80

X 3.40

Atalanta 1.92

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Sassuolo x Atalanta:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Sassuolo x Atalanta

The main points for the tip for Sassuolo x Atalanta:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Sassuolo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-125.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-280.0.
👉 In the last 6 Atalanta matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Sassuolo vs Atalanta?

Lets analyze the match between Sassuolo and Atalanta at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, which is Sassuolos usual stadium, giving them the home advantage.

📊 Recent statistics show that Sassuolo has scored an average of 1 goal per home game in the last 5 matches, but conceded 2 goals per game, indicating a vulnerable defense. Meanwhile, Atalanta averages 1 goal scored and 1 conceded away from home, showing better defensive balance. Ball possession slightly favors Atalanta (50% vs. 45% for Sassuolo), and they also have more recent league wins (4 wins in the last 5 games) compared to Sassuolo (2 wins).

🎯 Calculating the implied probabilities from median odds: Sassuolo win (1/3.8 = ~0.263), draw (1/3.4 = ~0.294), Atalanta win (1/1.92 = ~0.521). Normalized to total 100%, we get approximately: home win ~26%, draw ~29%, away win ~45%. This indicates a clear favoritism for Atalanta.

⚖️ Considering the offensive and defensive stats along with these adjusted implied probabilities, my fair estimate would be around: Sassuolo win 25-28%, draw about 30%, Atalanta win 42-45%. Fair odds for these values would be approximately: home odds ≈3.6-4.0; draw odds ≈3.3; away odds ≈2.2-2.4.

💰 Comparing with the final odds offered by bookmakers: Home win is priced at 3.8; draw around 3.6; away win about 1.95 — this suggests a positive expected value only on the Atalanta bet if we consider my slightly more conservative fair probabilities for the visitors.

📰 Recent news: Sassuolo is in a stable campaign without major threats to their mid-table position, while Atalanta is riding high after an impressive comeback against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League — boosting their morale and confidence for this tough away game.

📈 In Serie A standings, Sassuolo is comfortably away from the danger zone but without high ambitions at the moment; Atalanta aims to maintain or improve their position for important European competitions — this need could further boost their performance in this game.

✅ The Bets Kenya club model suggests almost zero or negative value on home or draw bets (-5% EV on home bet and -14% EV on draw bet) while showing a slight positive value (+0.33%) on the away win with odds close to the models forecast (~1.95). I fully agree with this assessment! The best bet here is clearly supporting Atalantas current strength, which is in good recent form both nationally and internationally.

Therefore, my recommendation is to bet on Atalantas victory, as besides the favorable statistics, they are motivated by their excellent recent form.

Good luck! 🍀⚽

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Analysis from Sassuolo x Atalanta for the Italy Serie A – 1 of March

The latest news about Sassuolo x Atalanta

Sassuolo: Sassuolo continues its Serie A campaign under the guidance of its current coaching staff, having secured an important 2-1 away victory against Udinese on February 15, 2026, thanks to the offensive partnership between Armand Laurienté and Andrea Pinamonti, the latter scoring after a three-month drought and lifting the club to 11th position in the table, far from the relegation zone; the teams recent lineup included Filippo Romagna as captain (with his contract expiring in June), while the squad also features the return of loaned Kristian Thorstvedt, forward Luca Lipani, and defender Walukiewicz. The club remains active in the winter transfer market, evaluating player options like Pinamonti, Stefano Turati, and others, aiming to solidify its mid-table position for the rest of the season.

Atalanta: Atalanta secured a dramatic 4-1 victory over Borussia Dortmund in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League qualifiers on February 25, 2026, overturning a 2-0 deficit from the first leg to reach the round of 16; the comeback started with a goal from Gianluca Scamacca early on, followed by a goal from Davide Zappacosta, while Lazar Samardzic converted a penalty in the 98th minute. The team, led by coach Raffaele Palladino, celebrated a performance praised by the club president, Luca Percassi, as “divine justice” for the clubs resilience and a ticket possibly facing Arsenal or Bayern Munich.

Table analysis for the game between Sassuolo and Atalanta

Sassuolo: The match against Atalanta is a great opportunity for Sassuolo to earn important points and try to climb the table. Although they are in an intermediate position (9th place), far from European competition spots, the game still presents a challenge to achieve a better position. It’s a confrontation that can help them leave their comfort zone, but the team needs a strong streak to reduce the 10-point gap to 6th place.

Atalanta: For Atalanta, the match is crucial to maintain the fight for a spot in the Conference League. They are in 7th position, very close to Como, which is in 6th place – the last position guaranteeing a spot in European competition. The team needs a victory to solidify this position or even aim for an upward move, thus securing qualification and providing more confidence for the rest of the championship.

Summary: The game is quite important for Atalanta, which is directly fighting for a European spot, while for Sassuolo, the importance is less, but there is still motivation to improve their position in the table. Therefore, the match has greater relevance for one of the involved teams.

How the handicap and odds moved for Sassuolo x Atalanta

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Sassuolo x Atalanta.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Sassuolo x Atalanta

When the best bet on Sassuolo x Atalanta is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1488452 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it a good idea to bet on Sassuolo?

🔵 Sassuolo: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.79% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $700.00
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$50.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 23.76% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – profiting $576.00;
• And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$184.00.

Should you bet on Atalanta?

🔴 Atalanta: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 51.45%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.92. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 510 times – having a profit of $469.20;
• And would lose other 490 times – having a loss of -$490.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$20.80 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Sassuolo x Atalanta

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Sassuolo
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sassuolo x Atalanta

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Sassuolo and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 Sassuolo.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 Sassuolo.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sassuolo x Atalanta

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Sassuolo x Atalanta