Torino x Lazio Betting tips for March 1 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Torino x Lazio, Sunday, 1/3/2026

📅 1/3/2026 17:00

Torino 2.80

X 2.95

Lazio 2.70

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Torino x Lazio:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Torino x Lazio

The main points for the tip for Torino x Lazio:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Torino in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-285.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Lazio in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-262.0.
👉 In the last 7 road matches, Lazio has not lost any of them.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Torino vs Lazio?

Lets analyze the match between Torino and Lazio that will take place at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, a stadium traditionally used by Torino, which keeps the home advantage for them.

📈 Positioning analysis: Torino is in a delicate position in the table, close to the relegation zone, with a recent poor streak (4 losses in 5 home games). This creates pressure and can negatively affect their performance. Lazio, on the other hand, has a mixed history, eliminated from the Europa League but still focused on the Coppa Italia, showing they have important goals ahead. Lazios morale seems more stable compared to Torinos turbulent moment.

Statistical analysis: Torino has a low average of goals scored at home (1 goal per game) and suffers defensively (2 goals conceded per game), with few recent wins. Ball possession is lower than opponents (47% vs. 53%). Conversely, Lazio performs better away: scored more goals in recent away matches (average 1 goal) and conceded fewer goals defensively (average 1 goal), and hasnt lost recent away games.

Calculation of fair probabilities:

• Implicit probabilities of median odds: Torino win = 1/2.8 ≈ 0.357; draw = 1/2.95 ≈ 0.339; Lazio win = 1/2.7 ≈ 0.370
• Total = 0.357 + 0.339 + 0.370 = 1.066 → normalized:
  Torino win: ~33.5%, draw ~31.8%, Lazio win ~34.7%

Adjusting for unfavorable statistics for Torino and better away numbers for Lazio suggests a slight advantage for the visiting team.

Adjusted fair odds calculation:

• Torino win: fair odds ~3.00
• Draw: fair odds ~3.15
• Lazio win: fair odds ~2.88

Expected value analysis considering the final odds:

• EV Torino win = ((2.875 /3) -1)*100 ≈ -4%
• EV Draw = ((3 /3.15)-1)*100 ≈ -4%
• EV Lazio win = ((2.7 /2.88)-1)*100 ≈ -6%

No bet shows a positive expected value above +5% for a safe bet.

News analysis 📰:

The situation at Torino is tense, with fan protests due to poor form and real risk in the standings – this could negatively impact the team emotionally in this important match at their usual stadium.
The Lazio is in a mixed moment; recently eliminated from the Europa League but still focused nationally – indicating greater mental stability compared to the opponent.

Analyzing the Bets Kenya model:

– The model predicts a slight advantage for the away win with odds close to current ones.
– The expected value calculated by the model also indicates a small positive advantage only for the away win (+0.46%), but very low.
– I partially agree with this view as the statistics reinforce a slight away superiority but without a clear margin to bet strongly.
– My recommendation is to avoid risky bets in this game or look for alternative markets like corners or both teams to score, given the moderate offensive profile of the teams.

Final summary: A balanced game where negative emotional instability weighs against Torino playing at their usual stadium. Lazio appears as a slight favorite based on recent statistics and current mental stability. However, the current odds reflect this balance well without offering clear value above usual criteria (>+5% EV). So, my suggestion is caution! ⚠️⚽️

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Analysis from Torino x Lazio for the Italy Serie A – 1 of March

Latest news on the match between Torino and Lazio

Torino: Torino suffered a tough 3-0 defeat at Luigi Ferraris Stadium against Genoa on Sunday, February 22, 2026, with Genoas Brooke Norton-Cuffy opening the scoring, followed by a second goal from Ekuban and a late goal from Messias, while Torino failed to score despite some early chances.

Lazio: Lazios recent luck has been mixed: the club was eliminated from the Europa League by Norwegian team Bodo Glimt, ending their continental run, while domestically they remain in the race for a spot in the Coppa Italia final, with Inter ready to face the semifinal winner that may involve Lazio.

Italy Serie A table analysis for Torino x Lazio

Torino: This match is crucial for Torino, who are only 3 points above the relegation zone. A win here can significantly help to steer clear of relegation danger, providing an important breather in the upcoming rounds. So, its a game to enter with full focus and seek the points to secure Serie A survival! 🔥⚽

Lazio: For Lazio, the match is also very important. They are in 10th place but close to the teams that qualify for European competitions. Winning this game can boost the team to reach those positions on the table and continue fighting for an international spot. So, Lazio has every reason to want to win and keep dreaming of Europe! 🌍🏆

Summary: Very important game for both teams, with Torino fighting to escape relegation and Lazio aiming to move up the table to secure a European spot. A match promising excitement and significance for both teams! ⚔️

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Torino x Lazio

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Torino x Lazio.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Torino x Lazio

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Torino x Lazio right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1488452 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is betting on Torino worth it?

🔵 Torino: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 33.92% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.80. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 340 times – having a profit of $612.00;
• And would lose other 660 times – having a loss of -$660.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$48.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.87% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.95. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 290 times – having a profit of $565.50;
• And would lose other 710 times – having a loss of -$710.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$144.50.

Is betting on Lazio worth it?

🔴 Lazio: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 37.21% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 370 times – profiting $629.00;
• And would have lost other 630 times – with a loss of -$630.00 because of them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$1.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Handicaps analysis for the match Torino x Lazio

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Torino
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Torino x Lazio

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Torino and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Torino.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Lazio.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Torino x Lazio

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Torino x Lazio