Verona x Napoli Betting tips for February 28 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Verona x Napoli, Saturday, 28/2/2026

📅 28/2/2026 17:00

Verona 6.50

X 3.73

Napoli 1.55

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Verona x Napoli:

🔮 Verona wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Verona, you can win up to $3250.00!

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Important information for your tip for Verona x Napoli:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Verona in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-305.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Napoli, Verona scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Napoli matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Verona x Napoli, with Verona as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Napoli conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Verona vs Napoli?

Lets analyze the match between Verona and Napoli at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, home of Verona, which has been a real cauldron for the home team. 🏟️

📈 Verona is in a tricky position in the table, with very poor home performance: 0 wins in the last 5 games at their stadium and a high goals conceded average (2 per game). Napoli, on the other hand, shows better away performance, with more goals scored and higher ball possession (56% vs. 44%). This indicates Napoli has greater control of the game and more effective offensive capacity.

📰 Recent news reports indicate Verona is suffering from key suspensions such as midfielder Al-Musrati and Orban, while Napoli is motivated by McTominay’s recovery in midfield after injury. Additionally, Napoli’s recent controversial loss might boost their desire to win to stay competitive in the Champions League race.

Analyzing the median odds (7.5 for Verona win; 3.8 for draw; 1.5 for Napoli win), we get approximate normalized implied probabilities: Verona Win ~12%, Draw ~25%, Napoli Win ~63%. Considering Verona’s weak defensive stats at home and Napoli’s superior offensive stats away, these probabilities make sense.

However, our internal model suggests a fair odds for the home team’s victory much lower (~4.65), indicating high value in this bet according to it — but that seems overly optimistic given the recent negative numbers of the home team.

Evaluating the expected value of the final odds versus the fair odds I calculated: betting on Napoli offers greater security due to the balance between realistic probability and fair return even with low odds (positive expected value). Betting on a draw or a home win does not present enough expected value to justify high risk.

Final suggestion: Bet on Napoli, as they have better recent form away, a more complete squad at this moment, and extra motivation after their recent controversial loss — all against a weakened opponent at their own stadium.

⚽💰 #ValueBet #SerieA #VeronaVsNapoli

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Analysis from Verona x Napoli for the Italy Serie A – 28 of February

Latest news about Verona x Napoli

Hellas Verona: Hellas Verona is currently dealing with disciplinary issues after midfielder Al-Musrati was sent off with two yellow cards in the previous round, missing the next match, while forward Orban is still serving the last game of a two-match suspension imposed at the start of the season; the clubs next Serie A fixture will be against Bologna, which will not have winger Juan Miranda due to an ileopsoas injury that will sideline him for three weeks.

Napoli: Napolis campaign was shaken by a controversial defeat to Atalanta on February 22, when the club – led by president Aurelio De Laurentiis – filed a formal protest with the Italian federation after what they consider a series of poor refereeing decisions, including a denied penalty and a controversial foul on Rasmus Højlund that left the Danish striker frustrated and the team feeling robbed of three crucial points in the tight Champions League race; meanwhile, midfielder Scott McTominay, who was sidelined due to a glute inflammation, is fully recovered and expected to return to the starting lineup, strengthening Napolis midfield options in their pursuit of European qualification.

Table analysis for the match between Verona x Napoli

Verona: Verona is in 20th place, last in the league, with only 15 points and already in the relegation zone. Practically no mathematical chances of escaping this situation at this stage of the season, the team faces a match of little relevance to their chances in Serie A, being more a game where they will seek to play for honor and try to earn points to improve performance, but with no direct impact on the final standings.

Napoli: Napoli is in 3rd place, with 50 points, firmly in the Champions League qualification zone. A victory in this game is important to consolidate the direct spot, maintaining distance from close competitors like Roma with the same points, and aiming to reduce the leaders advantage. Therefore, the match is very relevant for Napoli to stay strong in the fight for a spot in Europe’s top competition.

Summary: The match is crucial for Napoli, which fights for a high position in the table and a Champions League spot, while for Verona, already relegated, the game has little competitive importance in the league. In other words, it is an important game only for one of the teams.

How the handicap and odds moved for Verona x Napoli

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Verona x Napoli.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Verona x Napoli

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Verona x Napoli right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1488452 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it a good idea to bet on Verona?

🔵 Verona: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 19.47% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $1045.00
• And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$235.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 11.83%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.73. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 120 times – profiting $327.60;
• And would lose other 880 times – losing -$880.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$552.40.

Is betting on Napoli worth it?

🔴 Napoli: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 68.7%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.55. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 690 times – having a profit of $379.50;
• And would lose other 310 times – having a loss of -$310.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$69.50 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Verona x Napoli

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Verona
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Verona x Napoli

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Verona, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +1.0 Verona.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +1.0 Verona.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Verona x Napoli

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Verona x Napoli