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Home ยป Predictions ยป La Liga ยป Valencia x Celta Vigo Betting tips for November 25 in Spain Primera Liga
Saturday, 25 November 2023, 00h00 Spain Primera Liga
Valencia Valencia
PREDICTION Valencia wins Probability 12% 1 X 2
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo
ODD: @2.04 Don't miss this prediction! BET NOW Don't miss this prediction!

Valencia x Celta Vigo Betting tips for November 25 in Spain Primera Liga

Our betting tip for Valencia x Celta Vigo, Saturday, 25/11/2023
๐Ÿ“… 25/11/2023
15:15
Valencia Valencia
2.04
X
3.28
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo
3.58

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Valencia x Celta Vigo:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Valencia wins the match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Valencia, you can win up to $1020.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Valencia x Celta Vigo:

๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Valencia in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $169.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Celta Vigo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-399.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 5 matches as the home team against Celta Vigo, Valencia scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 3 Valencia matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
๐Ÿ‘‰ Valencia has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Celta Vigo playing at home.

๐Ÿ“Š Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Valencia x Celta Vigo

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Summary

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Analysis from Valencia x Celta Vigo for the Spain Primera Liga – 25 of November

๐ŸŸ๏ธ Valencia X Celta Vigo – Spain Primera Liga
๐Ÿ“… 25 of November, 2023 – 15:15
๐Ÿ”ต Valencia – Winning probability: 56.94% | Fair line: 1.76
โšช Tied game – Probability of tied match: 30.75% | Fair line: 3.25
๐Ÿ”ด Celta Vigo – Winning probability: 12.31% | Fair line: 8.12
โš– Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Valencia
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.00 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Valencia x Celta Vigo right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1024927 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Valencia x Celta Vigo

Is it worth betting on Valencia?

๐Ÿ”ต Valencia: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 56.94% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.04. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 570 times – profiting $592.80;
  • And would lose other 430 times – having a loss of -$430.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$162.80.

Is betting on draw worth it?

โšช draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 30.75% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.28. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 310 times – profiting $706.80;
  • And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just ๐Ÿ’ฐ$16.80. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is it a good idea to bet on Celta Vigo?

๐Ÿ”ด Celta Vigo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 12.31%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.58. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 120 times – profiting $309.60;
  • And would lose other 880 times – losing -$880.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$570.40.

Place your Bet with Bet365 Bonus

Handicaps analysis for the match Valencia x Celta Vigo

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

โš– Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Valencia
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Valencia x Celta Vigo

โš– Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Valencia, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Valencia.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Valencia x Celta Vigo

โšฝ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves