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Home » Predictions » Others » Argentino Quilmes x Excursionistas Betting tips for November 29 in Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
Friday, 29 November 2024, 23h00 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
Argentino Quilmes Argentino Quilmes
PREDICTION Argentino Quilmes wins Probability 61% 1 X 2
Excursionistas Excursionistas
ODD: @1.75 Don't miss this prediction!

Argentino Quilmes x Excursionistas Betting tips for November 29 in Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

Our betting tip for Argentino Quilmes x Excursionistas, Friday, 29/11/2024
📅 29/11/2024
23:00
Argentino Quilmes Argentino Quilmes
1.75
X
3.25
Excursionistas Excursionistas
4.20

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Argentino Quilmes x Excursionistas:

🔮 Argentino Quilmes wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Argentino Quilmes, you can win up to $875.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

The main points for the tip for Argentino Quilmes x Excursionistas:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Argentino Quilmes in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $242.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Excursionistas in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-280.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Argentino Quilmes scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Excursionistas, Argentino Quilmes scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Argentino Quilmes conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Excursionistas.
👉 Argentino Quilmes has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Excursionistas playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Argentino Quilmes x Excursionistas for the Argentina Primera B Metropolitana – 29 of November

🏟️ Argentino Quilmes X Excursionistas – Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
📅 29 of November, 2024 – 23:00
🔵 Argentino Quilmes – Winning probability: 61.26% | Fair line: 1.63
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 24.77% | Fair line: 4.04
🔴 Excursionistas – Winning probability: 13.97% | Fair line: 7.16
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Argentino Quilmes
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 8.75 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Argentino Quilmes x Excursionistas right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1229024 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Argentino Quilmes x Excursionistas

Is it worth betting on Argentino Quilmes?

🔵 Argentino Quilmes: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 61.26% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 610 times – having a profit of $457.50;
  • And would have lost other 390 times – with a loss of -$390.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$67.50.

Is betting on draw worth it?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.77%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $562.50;
  • And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$187.50.

Should you bet on Excursionistas?

🔴 Excursionistas: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 13.97% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 140 times – this would give you a profit of $448.00
  • And would have lost other 860 times – with a loss of -$860.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$412.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Argentino Quilmes x Excursionistas

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Argentino Quilmes
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Argentino Quilmes x Excursionistas

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Argentino Quilmes and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Argentino Quilmes. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Argentino Quilmes x Excursionistas

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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