Newtown x Penybont Betting tips for January 11 in Wales Premier League

Our betting tip for Newtown x Penybont, Saturday, 11/1/2025

📅 11/1/2025 12:45

Newtown 6.50

X 5.00

Penybont 1.33

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Newtown x Penybont:

🔮 Penybont wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Penybont, you can win up to $665.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Newtown x Penybont: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Newtown in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Penybont in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-132.0. 👉 Newtown did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Penybont scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Penybont matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Penybont conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Newtown conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Penybont. 👉 Even as a visitor, Penybont won the last 5 head-to-head matches Newtown´s territory

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Analysis from Newtown x Penybont for the Wales Premier League – 11 of January

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Newtown and Penybont.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1244129 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Newtown x Penybont

Is it a good idea to bet on Newtown?

🔵 Newtown: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 10.1% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 100 times – this would give you a profit of $550.00
• And would lose other 900 times – having a loss of -$900.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$350.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 9.38% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 90 times – having a profit of $360.00;
• And would lose other 910 times – losing -$910.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$550.00.

Should you bet on Penybont?

🔴 Penybont: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 80.52% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.33. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 810 times – having a profit of $267.30;
• And would lose other 190 times – losing -$190.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$77.30.

Handicaps analysis for the match Newtown x Penybont

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Newtown
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Newtown x Penybont

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Newtown, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +1.25 Newtown.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +1.25 Newtown.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Newtown x Penybont

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.