AVS x Estoril Betting tips for February 15 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for AVS x Estoril, Sunday, 15/2/2026

📅 15/2/2026 18:00

AVS 3.98

X 3.65

Estoril 1.83

Our algorithm has selected this tip for AVS x Estoril:

🔮 Estoril wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Estoril, you can win up to $915.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for AVS x Estoril:

👉 If you had bet $100 on AVS in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Estoril in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $75.0.
👉 AVS did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Estoril scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 Estoril matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, AVS conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for AVS as home team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last home matches.

🤖 What does ChatGPT have to say about our prediction for AVS vs Estoril?

Lets analyze the match between AVS and Estoril that will take place at the CD das Aves Stadium, home of AVS. The home team is in a critical position in the table, occupying 18th place with only 5 points in 20 games and a negative goal difference of -37. In the last five home games, AVS scored just 3 goals and conceded 11, with no wins. Additionally, their average ball possession is low (36%), indicating difficulties in controlling the game.

On the other hand, Estoril is much better placed in the table (7th place) with 30 points in 21 games and a positive goal difference (+8). Away from home in the last five league games, they scored a high average (10 goals) but also conceded quite a few (10 goals), showing an offensive style but defensively vulnerable. Their average possession is balanced (51%) and they have key players in the squad who can make a difference.

The median odds indicate a clear favoritism for Estoril: the away win pays about 1.83 while the AVS win pays nearly 4 times more. After normalizing the implied probabilities of the median odds, we get approximately: AVS win ~22%, draw ~26%, Estoril win ~52%. Considering recent team statistics — especially AVSs defensive fragility and poor home performance — this distribution makes sense.

However, when calculating fair odds based on the teams average statistics combined with recent news analysis, we see that:

• The realistic probability of AVS winning should be even lower due to their poor recent form and desperate position in the table;
• The chance of a draw might be slightly higher since Estoril also concedes many goals away;
• The probability of an away win might be underestimated by bookmakers considering the defensive risks presented by Estoril.

Therefore, my adjusted estimates would be: AVS wins ~18%, draw ~30%, Estoril wins ~52%. This results in approximate fair odds for betting: AVS @5.5; Draw @3.3; Estoril @1.9.

Analyzing the expected values using the final odds provided:

• AVS Win: EV ≈ ((4.333 / 5.5) -1)*100 = -21% → no value
• Draw: EV ≈ ((3.75 /3.3)-1)*100 = +13% → interesting positive value
• Estoril Win: EV ≈ ((1.75 /1.9)-1)*100 = -7% → no value

The bet with the highest expected value here is on the draw!

📰 News highlights:
AVS is going through a tough time with no recent wins or significant injuries reported – meaning no reinforcements or significant absences to change their poor performance.
Estoril is riding high on good overall results but shows defensive vulnerabilities away from home.
These factors reinforce my view that a balanced/draw result has a good chance in this game.

📈 Table analysis:
AVS is practically sinking in the relegation zone fighting against all this while Estoril seeks to establish itself among the top teams.
This disparity creates enormous pressure on the home team to seek an unlikely result against a technically superior opponent – a typical scenario where draws happen frequently due to cautious tactics from both sides.

Overall, I partially agree with the Bets Kenya club model regarding the clear favoritism to the visitor but disagree on betting directly on them as I see little expected value in this option currently.
I suggest betting on the draw for a better risk-return ratio here! ⚽🤝💰

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on AVS x Estoril?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on AVS x Estoril, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from AVS x Estoril for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 15 of February

The latest news about AVS x Estoril

AVS – Futebol SAD: AVS – Futebol SAD is struggling at the bottom of the Portugal Betclic League, holding 18th place with only five points after 20 matches (0‑5‑15) and a goal difference of -37. The team’s recent form has been poor – a 3‑1 defeat to Famalicão in the league on February 9, 2026, was followed by a 3‑2 loss in extra time against Sporting CP in the Portuguese Cup quarter-finals on February 5, 2026; earlier in the season, they were thrashed 0‑4 by Sporting Braga. They now face Estoril Praia at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota on February 15, 2026, before playing Santa Clara on March 15, 2026, with no reports of significant injuries.

Estoril Praia: Estoril Praia is in seventh place in the Portugal Betclic League after 21 matches, with a record of eight wins, six draws, and seven losses, a positive goal difference of 8, and 30 points. Recently, the team drew 2‑2 at home against Tondela on February 7, 2026. Under coach Ian Cathro, the club aims to improve its position with the home game against AVS on February 15, a league match against Gil Vicente on February 22, and a notable visit from Sporting CP on March 1. The main squad includes forwards like Rafik Guitane, Yanis Begraoui, and Alejandro Marqués, midfielders such as Pizzi, Xeka, and Jordan Holsgrove, defenders like Kévin Boma and Pedro Amaral, along with goalkeepers Martin Turk, Joel Robles, and Diogo Dias. The club’s U-23 team also has a match against Marítimo U-23 on February 13 in the Revelation League.

Portugal Primeira Liga table analysis for AVS x Estoril

AVS: Unfortunately for AVS, the situation is very tough, as the team is in 18th place with only 5 points and has already been mathematically relegated. Therefore, this game does not have a decisive importance for the club in terms of standings, being more of an opportunity to gain experience and focus on next year in the second division.

Estoril: Estoril is in 7th place with 30 points, far from the spots for European competitions, but still aiming to maintain a good position in the table. This match is important to try to secure a better final position and show competitiveness in the last rounds, avoiding a drop in the standings.

Summary: The game is irrelevant for AVS, already relegated, but has moderate importance for Estoril, which seeks to improve its position in the table to finish the season consistently.

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for AVS x Estoril

Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for AVS x Estoril (1X2, handicap and goals).

Tips for the 1×2 market for AVS x Estoril

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for AVS x Estoril right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1479336 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Should you bet on AVS?

🔵 AVS: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 23.53% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.98. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – profiting $715.20;
• And would lose other 760 times – losing -$760.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$44.80.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 16.95%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.65. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 170 times – having a profit of $450.50;
• And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$379.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on Estoril?

🔴 Estoril: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 59.52% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.83. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 600 times – having a profit of $498.00;
• And would lose other 400 times – having a loss of -$400.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$98.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match AVS x Estoril

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 AVS
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AVS x Estoril

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.5 AVS, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 AVS.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 AVS.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AVS x Estoril

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for AVS x Estoril