AVS x Estrela Betting tips for February 28 in Portugal Primeira Liga
| 📅 28/2/2026 15:30 |
 AVS2.70 |
X 3.10 |
Estrela  2.62 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for AVS x Estrela:
🔮 Estrela wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Estrela, you can win up to $1310.00!
The main points for the tip for AVS x Estrela:
👉 If you had bet $100 on AVS in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-67.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Estrela in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $150.0.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Estrela conceded at least 1 goal(s).
🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for AVS vs Estrela:
Lets analyze the match between AVS Futebol SAD and CF Estrela da Amadora, which will take place at the CD das Aves Stadium, the rightful home of AVS. The stadium has a capacity of about 8,560 spectators, which can create a favorable environment for the home team.
📈 Table analysis: AVS is at the bottom with only 8 points in 23 games and a very high negative goal difference (-39), showing significant defensive and offensive difficulties. Meanwhile, Estrela da Amadora is in 11th place with 23 points and a negative goal difference of -15, a more comfortable situation but still far from the top positions. This indicates that Estrela has better team quality and morale to seek results away.
AVS has recently scored an average of 1 goal per game at home but conceded twice as many (2 goals per game), demonstrating defensive fragility even playing at their stadium. Additionally, their average possession is low (35%), while they face considerable pressure from opponents (65%). The visiting team also scores few goals (1 per game) but concedes equally many (2). Offensively, both teams have low accuracy shot averages: AVS with 4 on-target shots per game at home versus 3 for Estrela away.
Implicit probability normalization based on median odds gives us approximately: home win ~36%, draw ~31%, away win ~33%. Considering recent stats and league position, I would slightly favor the away team due to their relative defensive consistency and better league standing.
The fair odds suggest higher value bets on the away win or draw compared to the home victory. The Bets Kenya model indicates positive value only for the away win with EV +5.57%, and advises against other options.
📰 News: AVS comes from an important victory against Estoril Praia (3-0), but recently suffered a heavy defeat against Benfica (0-3) and was eliminated from the Cup after a narrow loss to Sporting CP in extra time — this shows a team oscillating between good offensive moments and high defensive vulnerability. CF Estrela recently lost away to Vitória SC 2-1; despite that, they remain in a safe league zone without immediate pressure.
Final analysis: I agree with the bet suggested by the Bets Kenya model: betting on CF Estrela to win seems to be the best option here! Despite the mixed recent performances of both teams, the slightly higher consistency of the visitor combined with AVSs clear defensive fragility makes me believe this bet has real value — especially considering the final odds offered close to @2.7 for the visitors to win.
I would avoid betting on a draw or home win as both have negative EV according to our detailed calculation.
Therefore: 💡 Bet on CF Estrela da Amadora to win this match! ⚽🔥
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Analysis from AVS x Estrela for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 28 of February
🏟️ AVS X Estrela – Portugal Primeira Liga
📅 28 of February, 2026 – 15:30
🔵 AVS – Winning probability: 35.76% | Fair line: 2.8
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 25.26% | Fair line: 3.96
🔴 Estrela – Winning probability: 38.98% | Fair line: 2.57
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 AVS
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks
The latest news about AVS x Estrela
AVS Futebol SAD: AVS Futebol SAD has experienced a mixed period in recent weeks, starting their campaign in the Portugal Betclic League with a 3-0 victory over Estoril Praia, before being defeated 3-0 by Benfica in the league on Sunday, and then being eliminated from the Portuguese Cup after a 3-2 extra-time loss against Sporting CP on February 5, 2026; the squad includes forwards Óscar Perea, Antoine Baroan, Nenê, Tomané, Diego Duarte, and Babatunde Akinsola, midfielders Roni, Pedro Lima, Tiago Galletto, Gustavo Mendonça, and Ángel Algobia, defenders Rúben Semedo, Cristian Castro, Leonardo Rivas, Aderllan Santos, among others, as well as goalkeepers Adriel, Simão, and Pedro Trigueira.
CF Estrela da Amadora: CF Estrela da Amadora is currently 11th in the Portugal Betclic League and will host AVS Futebol SAD on Saturday, February 28, while their most recent top division result was a 2-1 away defeat against Vitória SC; the clubs U23 team is in 3rd place in the U23 Revelation League, having lost 2-1 to Rio Ave U23 in their last match and preparing to face Marítimo U23 on February 19.
Table analysis for the game between AVS and Estrela
AVS: AVS is at the bottom of the table with only 8 points, suffering greatly from the risk of direct relegation. This match is crucial to try to gather points that reduce the gap to outside the relegation zone, even though the mathematical chances of escaping are already very complicated. Every point is vital in fighting for permanence in the Portuguese football elite. ⚠️
Estrela: Estrela is in 12th place with 23 points, a relatively safer position but still close to the relegation zone and still fighting to completely distance itself from the threat. This match is important for Estrela to secure its permanence and eliminate any possibility of relegation, also seeking to get closer to direct competitors and stabilize its position in the table.
Summary: This confrontation is important for both teams, as AVS fights against relegation and desperately needs points, while Estrela wants to guarantee permanence and avoid risks, making this game a life-or-death duel in the Primeira Liga. 🔥
How the handicap and odds moved for AVS x Estrela
Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.
Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for AVS x Estrela (1X2, handicap and goals).
📊 With a variation of -3.70%, the odds for AVS are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @2.7 for AVS and now the odds are @2.6.
📊 With a variation of 0.00%, the odds for Draw are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @3.2 for Draw and now the odds are @3.2.
📊 With a variation of 3.85%, the odds for Estrela are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @2.6 for Estrela and now the odds are @2.7.
📊 The main handicap is stable: the current handicap of 0.00 for AVS is exactly the same from its opening.
📊 The Goal Market remains stable: the current handicap of 2.25 goals is exactly the same from its opening.
Tips for the 1×2 market for AVS x Estrela
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between AVS and Estrela.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1488477 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Is it worth betting on AVS?
🔵 AVS: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 35.76%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 360 times – having a profit of $612.00;
- And would have lost other 640 times – with a loss of -$640.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$28.00.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 25.26% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 250 times – profiting $525.00;
- And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$225.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Estrela?
🔴 Estrela: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 38.98%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.62. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 390 times – profiting $631.80;
- And would lose other 610 times – losing -$610.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$21.80.
Handicaps analysis for the match AVS x Estrela
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 AVS
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AVS x Estrela
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 AVS, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 AVS.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AVS x Estrela
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
FAQs: Common questions about the tip for AVS x Estrela
Who is the favourite: AVS or Estrela?
Our analysis shows this match is quite even, with no clear favourite. AVS has a win probability of 35.76%, while Estrela has a chance of 38.98%.
Who will win: AVS x Estrela?
There are no certainties in sports betting. This match appears quite level, with no defined favourite. AVS shows a win probability of 35.76%, and Estrela has 38.98%. Avoid promises of sure wins and always gamble responsibly!
What are the chances of AVS beating Estrela today?
According to our analysis, out of every 100 games we expect AVS to win approximately 36 of them against Estrela.
What are the chances of Estrela beating AVS today?
From our analysis, in 100 encounters we forecast that Estrela would take victory in roughly 39 of them against AVS.
Which team should I bet on: AVS or Estrela?
Smart bettors seek bets with positive expected value. According to our analysis, the recommended bet is: Estrela Wins, with an expected value of 5.06%. Remember to bet responsibly and manage your bankroll: dont stake over 2%!
How much is AVS paying today? See what you can win by betting on AVS x Estrela:
The odds for AVS to beat Estrela today are around 2.70. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh2700.00 if AVS wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
How much is Estrela paying today? See what you can win by betting on AVS x Estrela:
The odds for Estrela to beat AVS today are around 2.62. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh2620.00 if Estrela wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
