Benfica x Braga Betting tips for January 4 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Benfica x Braga, Saturday, 4/1/2025

📅 4/1/2025 18:00

Benfica 1.42

X 4.60

Braga 6.66

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Benfica x Braga:

🔮 Benfica wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Benfica, you can win up to $710.00!

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Important information for your tip for Benfica x Braga: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Benfica in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $43.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Braga in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $26.0. 👉 Benfica did not concede a goal in the last 4 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Braga, Benfica scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Benfica has won all the last 4 matches playing at home against Braga.

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Analysis from Benfica x Braga for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 4 of January

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Benfica and Braga.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1241796 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Benfica x Braga

Is it worth betting on Benfica?

🔵 Benfica: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 79.37% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.42. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 790 times – having a profit of $331.80;
• And would have lost other 210 times – with a loss of -$210.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$121.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 17.05%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 170 times – profiting $612.00;
• And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$218.00.

Is betting on Braga worth it?

🔴 Braga: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 3.58% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.66. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 40 times – this would give you a profit of $226.40
• And would have lost other 960 times – with a loss of -$960.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$733.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Benfica x Braga

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Benfica
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Benfica x Braga

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.0 Benfica and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.25 Benfica.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Braga.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Benfica x Braga

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.