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Home » Predictions » Portugal Primeira Liga » Benfica x FC Porto Betting tips for November 10 in Portugal Primeira Liga
Sunday, 10 November 2024, 20h45 Portugal Primeira Liga
Benfica Benfica
PREDICTION FC Porto Wins Probability 35% 1 X 2
FC Porto FC Porto
ODD: @3.4 Don't miss this prediction!

Benfica x FC Porto Betting tips for November 10 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Benfica x FC Porto, Sunday, 10/11/2024
📅 10/11/2024
20:45
Benfica Benfica
2.06
X
3.50
FC Porto FC Porto
3.40

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Benfica x FC Porto:

🔮 FC Porto wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on FC Porto, you can win up to $1700.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Benfica x FC Porto:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Benfica in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $125.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on FC Porto in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-86.0.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Benfica scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, FC Porto scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against FC Porto, Benfica scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 Benfica matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 FC Porto matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Benfica is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 61.00% of possession.

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Summary

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Analysis from Benfica x FC Porto for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 10 of November

🏟️ Benfica X FC Porto – Portugal Primeira Liga
📅 10 of November, 2024 – 20:45
🔵 Benfica – Winning probability: 44.65% | Fair line: 2.24
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 20.21% | Fair line: 4.95
🔴 FC Porto – Winning probability: 35.13% | Fair line: 2.85
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Benfica
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.50 corner kicks

When the best bet on Benfica x FC Porto is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1219192 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Benfica x FC Porto

Should you bet on Benfica?

🔵 Benfica: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 44.65% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.06. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 450 times – having a profit of $477.00;
  • And would lose other 550 times – losing -$550.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$73.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 20.21% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 200 times – having a profit of $500.00;
  • And would have lost other 800 times – with a loss of -$800.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$300.00.

Should you bet on FC Porto?

🔴 FC Porto: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 35.13% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 350 times – this would give you a profit of $840.00
  • And would lose other 650 times – losing -$650.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$190.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Benfica x FC Porto

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Benfica
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Benfica x FC Porto

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Benfica and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Benfica.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 FC Porto.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Benfica x FC Porto

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 1.00. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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