Casa Pia x Arouca Betting tips for December 20 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Casa Pia x Arouca, Friday, 20/12/2024

📅 20/12/2024 20:15

Casa Pia 2.31

X 3.04

Arouca 3.25

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Casa Pia x Arouca:

🔮 Tied Match
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Important information for your tip for Casa Pia x Arouca: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Casa Pia in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-107.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Arouca in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-395.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Casa Pia scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Casa Pia x Arouca, with Casa Pia as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Casa Pia has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Arouca playing at home.

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Analysis from Casa Pia x Arouca for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 20 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Casa Pia and Arouca.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1238712 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Casa Pia x Arouca

Is betting on Casa Pia worth it?

🔵 Casa Pia: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 38.5%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.31. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 390 times – profiting $510.90;
• And would have lost other 610 times – with a loss of -$610.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$99.10.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 39.04% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.04. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 390 times – profiting $795.60;
• And would have lost other 610 times – with a loss of -$610.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$185.60.

Is it worth betting on Arouca?

🔴 Arouca: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 22.46%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 220 times – profiting $495.00;
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$285.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Casa Pia x Arouca

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Casa Pia
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Casa Pia x Arouca

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Casa Pia and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Casa Pia. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Casa Pia x Arouca

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.