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Home » Predictions » Portugal Primeira Liga » Casa Pia x Nacional Betting tips for October 25 in Portugal Primeira Liga
Friday, 25 October 2024, 17h45 Portugal Primeira Liga
Casa Pia Casa Pia
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 35% 1 X 2
Nacional Nacional
ODD: @3.25 Don't miss this prediction!

Casa Pia x Nacional Betting tips for October 25 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Casa Pia x Nacional, Friday, 25/10/2024
📅 25/10/2024
17:45
Casa Pia Casa Pia
2.08
X
3.25
Nacional Nacional
3.60

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Casa Pia x Nacional:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1625.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Casa Pia x Nacional:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Casa Pia in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-212.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Nacional in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Nacional, Casa Pia scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Casa Pia conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Summary

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Casa Pia x Nacional?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Casa Pia x Nacional, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2024. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Casa Pia x Nacional for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 25 of October

🏟️ Casa Pia X Nacional – Portugal Primeira Liga
📅 25 of October, 2024 – 17:45
🔵 Casa Pia – Winning probability: 41.53% | Fair line: 2.41
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 35.16% | Fair line: 2.84
🔴 Nacional – Winning probability: 23.32% | Fair line: 4.29
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Casa Pia
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Casa Pia and Nacional.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1208103 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Casa Pia x Nacional

Is it worth betting on Casa Pia?

🔵 Casa Pia: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 41.53% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.08. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 420 times – having a profit of $453.60;
  • And would lose other 580 times – losing -$580.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$126.40.

Is betting on draw worth it?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 35.16%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 350 times – having a profit of $787.50;
  • And would lose other 650 times – losing -$650.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$137.50.

Is it worth betting on Nacional?

🔴 Nacional: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 23.32% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 230 times – this would give you a profit of $598.00
  • And would lose other 770 times – losing -$770.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$172.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Casa Pia x Nacional

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Casa Pia
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Casa Pia x Nacional

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Casa Pia and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Casa Pia.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Casa Pia x Nacional

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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