Estoril x Gil Vicente Betting tips for February 22 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Estoril x Gil Vicente, Sunday, 22/2/2026

📅 22/2/2026 18:00

Estoril 2.78

X 3.24

Gil Vicente 2.45

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Estoril x Gil Vicente:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Estoril x Gil Vicente

Important information for your tip for Estoril x Gil Vicente:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Estoril in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $525.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Gil Vicente in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-290.0.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Estoril scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Estoril matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 Gil Vicente matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Estoril conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Gil Vicente conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 What does ChatGPT have to say about our prediction for Estoril vs Gil Vicente?

Lets analyze the match between Estoril and Gil Vicente, which will take place at António Coimbra da Mota Stadium, home of Estoril. The stadium is the teams usual venue, which slightly favors the home team.

📈 Table analysis: Estoril is in 7th place with 30 points in 22 matches, while Gil Vicente is better positioned in 4th place with 40 points. This shows that Gil Vicente has a more solid campaign and aims to stay firmly in the European competition qualification zone. Meanwhile, Estoril tries to move away from the mid-table zone and improve its position.

Looking at recent stats: Estoril scored an average of about 2.8 goals in their last five home games (14 goals/5 games) and conceded about 1.6 goals (8/5). Away, Gil Vicente scored less (1 goal per game) but also conceded less (1 goal per game), showing a solid defense in away matches.

Ball possession is balanced for both teams (~53% for Estoril and ~54% for Gil Vicente), as are the average shot numbers, but Gil Vicentes defense seems more consistent away (fewer goals conceded). Additionally, Gil Vicentes morale is high after a recent victory against a strong opponent like Sporting Braga.

Calculating the implied probabilities from median odds:

• Prob home = 1/2.75 = 0.3636
• Prob draw = 1/3.2 = 0.3125
• Prob away = 1/2.42 =0.4132
• Total=1.0893 → Normalized: home=33%, draw=29%, away=38%

Given this and the statistics favoring the visitor due to defensive consistency and better league position, I estimate fair probabilities close to these normalized values: Estoril win ~33%, draw ~29%, Gil Vicente win ~38%. Fair odds would then be approximately:

• Home fair odds ≈3.03
• Draw fair odds ≈3.45
• Away fair odds ≈2.63

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers: Home(2.8), Draw(3.25), Away(2.5). Compared to my fair estimates, theres a slight undervaluation of the visitors win — meaning betting on Gil Vicente might have a moderate positive expected value.

Quick calculation of expected values using my fair odds:

• Home EV ≈ ((2.8 /3.03)-1)*100 ≈ -7%
• Draw EV ≈ ((3.25 /3.45)-1)*100 ≈ -6%
• Away EV ≈ ((2.5 /2.63)-1)*100 ≈ -4%

No bet shows an expected value above +5%, so none is considered a safe value bet.

📰 News:
The current form slightly favors Gil Vicente due to their recent good phase, including a victory over Sporting Braga; Estoril has irregular performance but plays at home where they tend to score many goals recently.

Conclusion: Despite Estorils offensive chances playing at their historic António Coimbra da Mota 🏟️ , the superior defensive consistency and better league position give a slight edge to Gil Vicente in this match — but without a large margin in current odds to indicate a clear value bet with expected value above +5%. Therefore, I do not recommend aggressive bets here.

The Bets Kenya model suggests a draw as the only option with a small positive value (+~+2%), and I agree that this is the least bad option given the uncertainties — but I still see no significant edge in this bet.

In summary: Balanced game! If you bet on something, go cautiously for the draw 😉⚽️.

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Estoril x Gil Vicente?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Estoril x Gil Vicente, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Estoril x Gil Vicente for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 22 of February

Latest news on Estoril x Gil Vicente

Estoril Praia: Estoril Praia is currently in 7th place in the Portugal Betclic League 2026 after 22 rounds, with eight wins, six draws, and eight losses, a goal difference of +5, and 30 points. Meanwhile, AVS – Futebol SAD, the last-placed team, is in 18th position; the two clubs face off on February 15, 2026, at 18:00 UTC in Vila das Aves for a league match that could see Estoril try to move away from the mid-table zone and AVS fight to avoid relegation. The club’s development teams remain active – the U-23 team is scheduled to face Estrela Amadora U-23 on February 24, 2026, and the U-19 team recently defeated AC Alcanenense U-19 by 4-3 in the U-19 Championship, 2nd Division.

Gil Vicente: Gil Vicente is enjoying a great run in the Portugal Betclic League 2025-26, holding fourth place after 22 matches, with 11 wins, seven draws, and four losses, a goal difference of +15, and 40 points. They recently secured a home victory over Sporting Braga by 2-1 on February 14, 2026, with Ricardo Horta opening the scoring and Gustavo Varela and Santi García scoring the goals that lifted the team back into European qualification zone.

Portugal Primeira Liga table analysis for Estoril x Gil Vicente

Estoril: Estoril is in 9th place with 30 points, still far from the spots for international competitions and also away from the relegation zone. The team is in a comfortable mid-table position but needs to earn points to maintain this safety and try to climb positions in the final stretch of the championship. Therefore, the match against Gil Vicente is important to keep the good momentum and perhaps advance to the qualification zone for European tournaments, as they are only 9 points behind the 4th place, which qualifies for the Conference League.

Gil Vicente: Gil Vicente is in 4th place with 40 points, occupying a spot in the qualification zone for the Conference League. This is a highly valued position, and the match against Estoril is crucial for the team to stay or even try to reach higher positions on the table, which guarantee participation in more important European competitions. The difference to the 5th place is small (1 point), so this match has a significant weight in determining the teams fate in the upcoming rounds.

Summary: The game is important for both teams, especially for Gil Vicente, which is fighting directly for a spot in international competitions. For Estoril, it represents a chance to get closer to the top positions and ensure stability in the middle of the table.

Odds and handicap movements for Estoril x Gil Vicente

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Estoril x Gil Vicente.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Estoril x Gil Vicente

When the best bet on Estoril x Gil Vicente is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1483644 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it a good idea to bet on Estoril?

🔵 Estoril: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.45% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.78. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 310 times – profiting $551.80;
• And would lose other 690 times – losing -$690.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$138.20.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.51% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.24. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 320 times – having a profit of $716.80;
• And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$36.80 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it a good idea to bet on Gil Vicente?

🔴 Gil Vicente: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 37.03% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.45. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 370 times – profiting $536.50;
• And would lose other 630 times – losing -$630.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$93.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Estoril x Gil Vicente

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Estoril
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Estoril x Gil Vicente

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Estoril, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Estoril.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Estoril x Gil Vicente

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Estoril x Gil Vicente