Estoril x Moreirense Betting tips for December 7 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Estoril x Moreirense, Sunday, 7/12/2025

📅 7/12/2025 15:30

Estoril 1.92

X 3.40

Moreirense 3.85

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Estoril x Moreirense:

🔮 Estoril wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Estoril, you can win up to $960.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Estoril x Moreirense:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Estoril in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-130.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Moreirense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-212.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Estoril scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Moreirense, Estoril scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Estoril conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 What does ChatGPT have to say about our prediction for Estoril vs Moreirense?

⚽ The match between Estoril and Moreirense is expected to be balanced, but with a slight favoritism for Estoril playing at their home stadium, António Coimbra da Mota Stadium. Analyzing recent statistics, Estoril averages 2 goals scored and conceded at home, with a higher volume of shots (14 per game) compared to Moreirense (8). The home team also shows better offensive and defensive performance in their recent games on their grounds.

📈 In the Portugal Primeira Liga standings, although exact position data isnt detailed here, we know Moreirense is in seventh place aiming to maintain their good form against tough opponents. Meanwhile, Estoril has been showing strength at their stadium and wants to establish themselves to climb the rankings. This need for points could increase the game’s intensity.

📰 Recent news: Estoril experienced an important setback with the termination of defender Philippe Lanquetins loan due to off-field issues. Despite that, they come energized after a victory against Porto and have strong support from the local fans at their recently renovated stadium. On the other hand, Moreirense remains focused on the tough upcoming fixtures and relies on offensive standout Kiko Bondoso to try to surprise away from home.

Analyzing the median odds (1.91 for Estoril win; 3.4 draw; 3.85 Moreirense win), the normalized implied probabilities suggest roughly: 52% chance for Estoril victory; 29% draw; 19% away win.

Considering the statistical data combined with recent news and the confirmed home advantage due to the usual use of the stadium by Estoril, my fair probability estimate would be:

• Estoril Win: ~53%
• Draw: ~27%
• Moreirense Win: ~20%

Thus, fair odds would be approximately: 1.89, 3.70, 5.00. Comparing these to the final odds offered by bookmakers (2.1 / 3.4 / 3.5), there is clear value in betting on the home team — since the final odds are higher than my fair odds (~2.1 vs ~1.89). This generates a significant positive expected value for this option.

The analysis by Bets Kenya indicates a strong preference for the home win (predicted odds lower than the other two) with a high positive EV (+18%), confirming this more optimistic view of the home team.

Final suggestion:

• Bet on Estoril victory as there is a positive expected value above 5%, considering both statistics and recent team form 🏆🔥;
• Be cautious with bets on a draw or away win — both show negative EV according to our calculations;
• Always monitor for possible changes until minutes before the match!

Let’s take advantage of this opportunity! 💰⚽🚀

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Estoril x Moreirense?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Estoril x Moreirense, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Estoril x Moreirense for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 7 of December

When the best bet on Estoril x Moreirense is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1449456 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

The latest news about Estoril x Moreirense

Estoril: The latest news from Estoril includes the termination of the loan of French defender Philippe Lanquetin, after ADO Den Haag revealed he was sentenced to three years in prison – two suspended – for involuntary aggravated bodily injury and driving without a license, which led the club to suspend him and end the agreement. Additionally, the Portuguese team participated in a notable match in the Portugal League, where Porto forward Luuk de Jong suffered a partial tear of the anterior cruciate ligament after losing 1-0 to Estoril. The newly appointed coach João Nuno Stoica also celebrated the winning goal in his debut against Estoril, stating that the fans felt like an extra player on the field and that the victory gave him confidence to handle the pressure.

Moreirense: Moreirense, a Primeira Liga team that plays its home matches at Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Moreira de Cónegos, is currently seventh in Liga Portugal Betclic and aims to solidify this position with a series of tough matches, including hosting Famalicão on November 29, 2025, a league match against Benfica in December 2025, and an away game against AVS – Futebol SAD on January 3, 2026. The squad, led by coach Ricardo Sousa, has been regularly contributed to by forward Kiko Bondoso in the 2025-26 season, while the club’s U-19 team continues competing in the national youth championship.

Portugal Primeira Liga table analysis for Estoril x Moreirense

Estoril: Estoril is in 10th place with 13 points, positioned in an intermediate zone of the table. The team is relatively far from both the European competition qualification zone and the relegation zone, indicating that the match against Moreirense could be important for improving their standing, but not decisive for their main goals at the moment. There is still a chance to move closer to the higher spots, but with some margin to recover.

Moreirense: Moreirense is in 7th place with 19 points, better positioned than Estoril and closer to the European qualification zones. This game is important to maintain or increase their advantage over mid-tier teams and even dream of a European spot, as they are still relatively close to the teams competing for those positions. A victory could be crucial to stay firm in this fight.

Summary: The match is more important for Moreirense, which is fighting for better positions and European spots, while for Estoril it is an opportunity to climb the table without the game being decisive for their current goals. In other words, the game has significant importance for at least one side.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Estoril x Moreirense

Is betting on Estoril worth it?

🔵 Estoril: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 56.39%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.92. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 560 times – this would give you a profit of $515.20
• And would have lost other 440 times – with a loss of -$440.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$75.20.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 21.59% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 220 times – profiting $528.00;
• And would lose other 780 times – losing -$780.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$252.00.

Should you bet on Moreirense?

🔴 Moreirense: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.02% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.85. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $627.00;
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$153.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Estoril x Moreirense

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Estoril
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Estoril x Moreirense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Estoril, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Estoril.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Moreirense.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Estoril x Moreirense

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.