Estrela x SC Farense Betting tips for April 13 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Estrela x SC Farense, Sunday, 13/4/2025

📅 13/4/2025
14:30

Estrela
2.45

X
3.05

SC Farense

2.89

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Estrela x SC Farense:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1525.00!

🔮 SC Farense wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on SC Farense, you can win up to $1445.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com

Some important points for the tip for Estrela x SC Farense:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Estrela in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Farense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, SC Farense scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 SC Farense matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, SC Farense conceded at least 2 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Estrela conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against SC Farense.

Summary

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Analysis from Estrela x SC Farense for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 13 of April

🏟️ Estrela X SC Farense – Portugal Primeira Liga
📅 13 of April, 2025 – 14:30
🔵 Estrela – Winning probability: 23.72% | Fair line: 4.22
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 36.94% | Fair line: 2.71
🔴 SC Farense – Winning probability: 39.34% | Fair line: 2.54
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Estrela
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Estrela and SC Farense.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1302187 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Estrela x SC Farense

Is it a good idea to bet on Estrela?

🔵 Estrela: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 23.72% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.45. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would hit 240 times – this would give you a profit of $348.00
And would lose other 760 times – losing -$760.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$412.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 36.94%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.05. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would hit 370 times – this would give you a profit of $758.50
And would have lost other 630 times – with a loss of -$630.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$128.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on SC Farense?

🔴 SC Farense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 39.34% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.89. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

Would hit 390 times – this would give you a profit of $737.10
And would lose other 610 times – having a loss of -$610.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$127.10.

Handicaps analysis for the match Estrela x SC Farense

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Estrela
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Estrela x SC Farense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Estrela and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Estrela.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 SC Farense.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Estrela x SC Farense

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.