Estrela x SC Farense Betting tips for April 29 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Estrela x SC Farense, Monday, 29/4/2024

📅 29/4/2024 19:15

Estrela 2.18

X 3.25

SC Farense 3.20

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Estrela x SC Farense:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Estrela x SC Farense

Important information for your tip for Estrela x SC Farense: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Estrela in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-80.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Farense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Estrela scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, SC Farense scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against SC Farense, Estrela scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Estrela matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Estrela conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, SC Farense conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Estrela has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against SC Farense playing at home.

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Analysis from Estrela x SC Farense for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 29 of April

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Estrela and SC Farense.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1108288 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Estrela x SC Farense

Should you bet on Estrela?

🔵 Estrela: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 47.95%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.18. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 480 times – this would give you a profit of $566.40
• And would lose other 520 times – losing -$520.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$46.40 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.06% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 310 times – this would give you a profit of $697.50
• And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$7.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on SC Farense?

🔴 SC Farense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 20.99% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 210 times – having a profit of $462.00;
• And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$328.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Estrela x SC Farense

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Estrela
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Estrela x SC Farense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Estrela, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Estrela.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Estrela.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Estrela x SC Farense

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.