Famalicao x SC Farense Betting tips for December 21 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Famalicao x SC Farense, Saturday, 21/12/2024

📅 21/12/2024 15:30

Famalicao 1.86

X 3.22

SC Farense 4.58

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Famalicao x SC Farense:

🔮 Tied Match
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Some important points for the tip for Famalicao x SC Farense: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Famalicao in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Farense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $62.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, SC Farense scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Famalicao matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Famalicao x SC Farense, with Famalicao as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 SC Farense received red cards as the away team in all the last 3 head-to-head matches against Famalicao. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, SC Farense conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 road matches, SC Farense has not lost any of them. 👉 Famalicao has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against SC Farense playing at home.

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Famalicao x SC Farense?

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Analysis from Famalicao x SC Farense for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 21 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Famalicao x SC Farense right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1238850 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Famalicao x SC Farense

Is betting on Famalicao worth it?

🔵 Famalicao: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 58.55%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.86. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 590 times – having a profit of $507.40;
• And would lose other 410 times – having a loss of -$410.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$97.40, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 33.27% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.22. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 330 times – having a profit of $732.60;
• And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$62.60.

Is it worth betting on SC Farense?

🔴 SC Farense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 8.18% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.58. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 80 times – profiting $286.40;
• And would lose other 920 times – losing -$920.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$633.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Famalicao x SC Farense

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Famalicao
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Famalicao x SC Farense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Famalicao, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Famalicao.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Famalicao x SC Farense

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.