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Home » Predictions » Portugal Primeira Liga » FC Porto x Arouca Betting tips for September 29 in Portugal Primeira Liga
Sunday, 29 September 2024, 14h00 Portugal Primeira Liga
FC Porto FC Porto
PREDICTION FC Porto wins Probability 92% 1 X 2
Arouca Arouca
ODD: @1.2 Don't miss this prediction!

FC Porto x Arouca Betting tips for September 29 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for FC Porto x Arouca, Sunday, 29/9/2024
📅 29/9/2024
14:00
FC Porto FC Porto
1.20
X
6.60
Arouca Arouca
13.00

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for FC Porto x Arouca:

🔮 FC Porto wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on FC Porto, you can win up to $600.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

The main points for the tip for FC Porto x Arouca:

👉 If you had bet $100 on FC Porto in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $105.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Arouca in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-230.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, FC Porto scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Arouca, FC Porto scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 FC Porto is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 70.00% of possession.
👉 FC Porto is good playing home: it has 7 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 FC Porto has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Arouca playing at home.

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Summary

Looking for another bookie to bet on FC Porto x Arouca?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on FC Porto x Arouca, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2024. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from FC Porto x Arouca for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 29 of September

🏟️ FC Porto X Arouca – Portugal Primeira Liga
📅 29 of September, 2024 – 14:00
🔵 FC Porto – Winning probability: 92.39% | Fair line: 1.08
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 6.40% | Fair line: 15.62
🔴 Arouca – Winning probability: 1.21% | Fair line: 82.64
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 FC Porto
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for FC Porto x Arouca right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1190630 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for FC Porto x Arouca

Is betting on FC Porto worth it?

🔵 FC Porto: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 92.39% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 920 times – having a profit of $184.00;
  • And would lose other 80 times – having a loss of -$80.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$104.00.

Should you bet on draw?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 6.4% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 60 times – profiting $336.00;
  • And would have lost other 940 times – with a loss of -$940.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$604.00.

Is it worth betting on Arouca?

🔴 Arouca: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 1.21% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 13.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 10 times – profiting $120.00;
  • And would lose other 990 times – losing -$990.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$870.00.

Place your Bet with Bet365 Bonus

Handicaps analysis for the match FC Porto x Arouca

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 FC Porto
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for FC Porto x Arouca

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.25 FC Porto and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.75 FC Porto.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.75 Arouca.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for FC Porto x Arouca

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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