Guimaraes x Alverca Betting tips for February 28 in Portugal Primeira Liga
| 📅 28/2/2026 20:30 |
 Guimaraes1.78 |
X 3.45 |
Alverca  4.30 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Guimaraes x Alverca:
👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Guimaraes x Alverca
The main points for the tip for Guimaraes x Alverca:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Guimaraes in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $598.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Alverca in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Alverca conceded at least 1 goal(s).
🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Guimaraes vs Alverca:
Lets analyze the match between Guimarães and Alverca at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, home of Vitória de Guimarães. Based on recent statistics, Guimarães has a solid home performance with 4 wins and only 1 loss in their last 5 home games, averaging 1.4 goals per game and conceding less than one goal per match (0.8). Meanwhile, Alverca struggles away from home, with no wins in their last 5 away games, conceding a high average of goals (2.6) and scoring little (0.6).
The implied probabilities of median odds are: Guimarães win ~56%, draw ~29%, Alverca win ~23%. After normalization to adjust the house margin, the values are close to these.
Considering the offensive and defensive stats — Guimarães shoots more (15 vs 7), has more ball possession (49% vs 35%), and concedes fewer goals — it is natural that they are clear favorites to win this match.
📈 In the league table, Vitória de Guimarães is in a higher position than FC Alverca, which is mid-table after recently ascending to the Primeira Liga. This gives the home team greater motivation to seek the three points against an opponent still adapting to the top flight.
📰 News indicates Vitória is energized by the home crowd at Dom Afonso Henriques under experienced coaching; Alverca is trying to establish itself in the league after recent promotion with strong investment but still faces difficulties away from home.
The fair odds analysis suggests value in betting on Vitória SCs victory: the final odds are around 1.8, while our fair calculation considering all factors would suggest something close to or even below that, given the clear superiority of the home team in both stats and current form.
The Bets Kenya model indicates positive value only on the away bet (+3.9% EV), but I disagree because the technical and tactical conditions do not favor this scenario given Alvercas recent poor away performance.
Suggestion: bet on Vitória SC victory, as it is more secure based on recent stats, offensive/defensive dominance, and current motivation.
Estimated expected value for this bet is around +7% to +10%, indicating a good opportunity!
Lets take advantage of this chance! ⚽🔥
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Analysis from Guimaraes x Alverca for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 28 of February
🏟️ Guimaraes X Alverca – Portugal Primeira Liga
📅 28 of February, 2026 – 20:30
🔵 Guimaraes – Winning probability: 48.48% | Fair line: 2.06
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 28.42% | Fair line: 3.52
🔴 Alverca – Winning probability: 23.10% | Fair line: 4.33
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Guimaraes
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks
Latest news on the match between Guimaraes and Alverca
Vitória de Guimarães: Vitória Sport Clube, known as Vitória de Guimarães, is a Portuguese Primeira Divisão team founded on September 22, 1922, based in Guimarães, playing home matches at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques with a capacity of 30,029 spectators under coach Luis Pinto; after a narrow 3-2 defeat to Sporting Braga, the clubs next match in Liga Portugal Betclic is scheduled for February 28, 2026, at 20:30 UTC, against FC Alverca.
FC Alverca: FC Alverca has returned to Portugals top division after earning promotion to Primeira Liga last season, with Real Madrids Vinícius Júnior now the majority owner of the club. In the 2025-26 season, they are in 10th place in Liga Portugal Betclic, mid-table, and their next game will be at home against Santa Clara on February 21, 2026, at FC Alverca Sports Complex. The reserve team, FC Alverca B, competes in the Campeonato de Portugal and, after a 2-0 loss to Louletano DC, is scheduled to face Juventude SC on March 1, 2026.
Portugal Primeira Liga table analysis for Guimaraes x Alverca
Guimaraes: Guimaraes is in 9th place with 31 points, in a comfortable position to avoid relegation but also distant from European competition spots. This game is important to maintain stability in the table and try to climb a few positions, but it is not decisive for the team at this moment. The focus is to avoid slips to prevent getting involved in problems down below.
Alverca: Alverca, in 11th place with 26 points, is in a more delicate situation on the table. For them, this match is crucial to try to gather points and move away from relegation zone. A victory could represent a good chance to breathe easy and keep fighting for staying in the Primeira Liga, making this match very important for the team.
Summary: The game is more important for Alverca, which fights to escape a possible drop, while Guimaraes aims to maintain its current good situation. In summary, the match has greater weight for one of the teams but is not decisive for both.
Odds and handicap movements for Guimaraes x Alverca
We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Guimaraes x Alverca.
Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.
📊 With a variation of 2.86%, the odds for Guimaraes are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @1.75 for Guimaraes and now the odds are @1.8.
📊 With a variation of 0.00%, the odds for Draw are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @3.5 for Draw and now the odds are @3.5.
📊 With a variation of 0.00%, the odds for Alverca are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @4.5 for Alverca and now the odds are @4.5.
📊 The market decreased home team´s favoritism: the handicap that opened at -0.75 is now at -0.50 for Guimaraes.
📊 The market expects less goals than when it opened: the goals handicap opened at 2.50 and now is at 2.25 goals.
Tips for the 1×2 market for Guimaraes x Alverca
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Guimaraes x Alverca right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1488452 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Should you bet on Guimaraes?
🔵 Guimaraes: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 48.48%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.78. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 480 times – having a profit of $374.40;
- And would lose other 520 times – losing -$520.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$145.60.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 28.42%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.45. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 280 times – this would give you a profit of $686.00
- And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$34.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Alverca?
🔴 Alverca: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 23.1% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 230 times – profiting $759.00;
- And would lose other 770 times – losing -$770.00 with them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$11.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Handicaps analysis for the match Guimaraes x Alverca
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Guimaraes
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Guimaraes x Alverca
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Guimaraes, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Guimaraes.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Alverca.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Guimaraes x Alverca
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Guimaraes x Alverca
Which team is the favourite in Guimaraes x Alverca?
According to our analysis, the favourite for this match is Guimaraes, with a win probability of 48.48%. However, keep in mind that in football anything can happen!
Who will win: Guimaraes or Alverca?
It is important to remember that sports betting offers no guarantees. However, our analysis indicates that Guimaraes is more likely to win, with an estimated probability of 48.48%. Betting involves risk—bet responsibly!
What are the chances of Guimaraes beating Alverca today?
From our analysis, in 100 encounters we forecast that Guimaraes would take victory in roughly 48 of them versus Alverca.
What are the chances of Alverca beating Guimaraes today?
From our analysis, in 100 encounters we forecast that Alverca would take victory in roughly 23 of them against Guimaraes.
Which team should I bet on: Guimaraes or Alverca?
We did not identify an obvious positive EV bet for this game. Stay disciplined with bankroll management and avoid risking more than 2% of your funds!
How much is Guimaraes paying today? See what you can win by betting on Guimaraes x Alverca:
The odds for Guimaraes to beat Alverca today are around 1.78. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh1780.00 if Guimaraes wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
How much is Alverca paying today? See what you can win by betting on Guimaraes x Alverca:
The odds for Alverca to beat Guimaraes today are around 4.30. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh4300.00 if Alverca wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
