Guimaraes x Nacional Betting tips for December 23 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Guimaraes x Nacional, Monday, 23/12/2024

📅 23/12/2024 18:45

Guimaraes 1.50

X 4.00

Nacional 6.25

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Guimaraes x Nacional:

🔮 Nacional wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Nacional, you can win up to $3125.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Guimaraes x Nacional: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Guimaraes in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $125.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Nacional in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Guimaraes scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Nacional, Guimaraes scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Guimaraes x Nacional, with Guimaraes as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Nacional conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Guimaraes conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Nacional. 👉 Guimaraes has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Nacional playing at home. 👉 It is not a good time for Nacional as away team: it comes from 5 losses in a row in its last away matches.

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Guimaraes x Nacional?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Guimaraes x Nacional, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2024. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Guimaraes x Nacional for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 23 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Guimaraes and Nacional.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1239435 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Guimaraes x Nacional

Is it worth betting on Guimaraes?

🔵 Guimaraes: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 65.7%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 660 times – this would give you a profit of $330.00
• And would lose other 340 times – losing -$340.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$10.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 19.29%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $570.00
• And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$240.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Nacional?

🔴 Nacional: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 15.02%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 6.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 150 times – profiting $787.50;
• And would lose other 850 times – losing -$850.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$62.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Guimaraes x Nacional

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Guimaraes
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Guimaraes x Nacional

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.25 Guimaraes and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 Guimaraes.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.0 Guimaraes.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Guimaraes x Nacional

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.