Moreirense x Benfica Betting tips for December 14 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Moreirense x Benfica, Sunday, 14/12/2025

📅 14/12/2025 18:00

Moreirense 9.00

X 5.00

Benfica 1.32

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Moreirense x Benfica:

🔮 Benfica wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Benfica, you can win up to $660.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Moreirense x Benfica:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Moreirense in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $213.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Benfica in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $106.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Moreirense scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Benfica scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Moreirense x Benfica, with Moreirense as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 Moreirense matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Moreirense conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Benfica is hard to beat as a visitor: it has 4 wins in a row in its last road matches.
👉 Moreirense has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Benfica playing at home.

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Moreirense vs Benfica?

⚽ In the match between Moreirense and Benfica, which will take place at the Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas stadium, we have a clear scenario: Benfica is the absolute favorite. The median odds indicate a Benfica victory at 1.31, a draw at 5, and a Moreirense win at 9.2, reflecting this disparity.

📈 Analyzing recent statistics, Moreirense has a decent home performance with an average of about 2 favorable goals per game and concedes around 1 goal per match. Benfica, on the other hand, shows impressive away numbers: an average of 2 goals scored and only 1 conceded, along with high possession (58%) and greater offensive volume (18 shots per game). This shows a very dominant visiting team.

📰 Recent news indicates that Moreirense is in seventh place in the league with a competitive but inconsistent season. The squad includes experienced players but without significant recent offensive highlights. Conversely, Benfica is on a roll after an important victory in the Champions League against Napoli and maintains an undefeated streak in the national championship with eight wins in thirteen games – boosting their morale for this match.

The fair odds analysis suggests that the odds for a Moreirense victory are overestimated (too high), while the draw odds are reasonable, and the odds for Benfica’s win may be underestimated by the market due to their recent strong campaign.

The Bets Kenya model indicates positive value only for betting on Benfica’s victory (EV +21.9%), I fully agree! The technical, tactical, and moral superiority of the visitors justifies this safe bet even when playing away.

My suggestion: bet on Benfica to win, as there is real value in this odds given the current strength of the Lisbon team against the more modest opponent at home.

Always remember: conscious betting is winning betting! 🍀

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Moreirense x Benfica?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2025, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Moreirense x Benfica:

Analysis from Moreirense x Benfica for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 14 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Moreirense x Benfica right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1452657 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

The latest news about Moreirense x Benfica

Moreirense: Currently competing in the Portugal Betclic League, Moreirense is in seventh place for the 2025-26 season and will face Benfica in a league match on December 14, 2025, at 18:00 UTC. Upcoming fixtures also include a home game against Sporting CP on February 22, 2026, at 11:00 UTC and a match against Gil Vicente on February 8, 2026, at 11:00 UTC, having previously hosted AVS-Futebol SAD on January 3, 2026, at 20:30 UTC. The squad features goalkeeper André Ferreira (with backups Caio and Mika), defenders like Diogo Travassos, Michel Augusto, Gilberto Batista, and Marcelo, midfielders including Vasco Sousa, Jimi Gower, Lawrence Ofori, and Kiko Bondoso, along with forwards Luís Semedo, Guilherme Schettine, and Yan Maranhão. Recent results have been mixed, with draws against top-tier opponents and a victory in the Womens Portuguese Cup by the clubs female team, reflecting a competitive but inconsistent season.

Benfica: Benfica recently boosted its Champions League campaign with a decisive 2-0 victory over Napoli at Estádio da Luz, marked by Ríos early goal and Leandro Barreiros heel finish, prompting coach José Mourinho to celebrate while warning that the team still needs many points to reach the knockout stage. Domestically, Lisbons team is third in the Primeira Liga, eight points behind leaders Porto, with an undefeated record of eight wins and five draws in thirteen matches, totaling 29 points, and faces a crucial match against Moreirense to maintain good form amid growing fan pressure.

Table analysis for the game between Moreirense and Benfica

Moreirense: Moreirense is in 7th place with 20 points, trying to solidify its position among the mid-table teams. The match against Benfica is important for Moreirense to maintain or even improve its standing, potentially moving up a few spots if they achieve a good result. With the table still competitive in the middle, every point counts to ensure a smoother season and perhaps even aim for a spot in European competitions, although that possibility is less likely. Therefore, this game is quite significant for Moreirense, especially to maintain stability in the league.

Benfica: Benfica is in 3rd place with 29 points, in the qualification zone for the Europa League. The gap to 2nd place (Sporting, 32 points) is just 3 points, so a victory would be crucial to get even closer to the runner-up position and dream of leading the table. Additionally, Benfica needs to secure a good run to stay firmly in the spots that guarantee participation in international competitions. Therefore, this matchup is very important for Benfica to keep pressure on the top positions.

Summary: The game is important for both teams. Moreirense aims to consolidate its position in the middle of the table and even try to advance, while Benfica wants to stay strong in the fight for the top spots and a place in international competitions. A match with great weight for both teams ambitions this season! ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Moreirense x Benfica

Is betting on Moreirense worth it?

🔵 Moreirense: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 1.04%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 9.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 10 times – having a profit of $80.00;
• And would have lost other 990 times – with a loss of -$990.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$910.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 5.37%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 50 times – profiting $200.00;
• And would lose other 950 times – losing -$950.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$750.00.

Is it worth betting on Benfica?

🔴 Benfica: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 93.6%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.32. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 940 times – having a profit of $300.80;
• And would have lost other 60 times – with a loss of -$60.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$240.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match Moreirense x Benfica

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.75 Moreirense
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Moreirense x Benfica

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +1.75 Moreirense and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +1.5 Moreirense.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.5 Benfica.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Moreirense x Benfica

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.