Nacional x Casa Pia Betting tips for February 8 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Nacional x Casa Pia, Sunday, 8/2/2026

📅 8/2/2026 15:30

Nacional 2.16

X 3.16

Casa Pia 3.22

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Nacional x Casa Pia:

🔮 Casa Pia wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Casa Pia, you can win up to $1610.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for Nacional x Casa Pia:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Nacional in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-55.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Casa Pia in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $37.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Nacional scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 Nacional matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 Casa Pia matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Casa Pia conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for Nacional vs Casa Pia:

Lets analyze the match between C.D. Nacional and Casa Pía, which will take place at Madeira Stadium, the traditional home of Nacional. The Madeira team has a mixed recent performance at home, with 2 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games at their stadium, averaging 2 goals per game and conceding about 1 goal per match. Casa Pía struggles away from home, with only 2 wins in their last 5 away games and a lower average of goals scored (1 goal per game) while conceding more (an average of 2 goals). Ball possession favors the visitor (50% vs. 42%), but Nacional compensates with greater offensive volume in shots.

The median odds indicate a slight advantage for Nacional (2.17), followed by a draw (3.17), and Casa Pía win (3.14). Converting these odds into normalized implied probabilities gives approximately: Nacional win ~45%, draw ~15%, Casa Pía win ~40%. Considering the weak defensive stats of the visitors and the moderate offensive strength of the home team, my adjusted estimate would be close to: Nacional win ~48%, draw ~22%, Casa Pía win ~30%. This suggests that bookmakers are slightly underestimating the chance of a draw.

Calculating the fair odds based on this analysis, we have: Nacional with a fair odd close to @2.08; Draw @4.55; Casa Pía @3.33.

Comparing the expected value of the final odds offered by bookmakers to my fair odds: betting on the visitors win offers a significant positive expected value (+12%), while betting on the home team or the draw does not provide relevant expected value.

📰 News:
O C.D. Nacional is fighting to escape the danger zone in the table, occupying a low mid-table position with recent poor results including important losses against strong teams like Sporting CP and Vitória SC.
Casa Pía is also fighting relegation but recently surprised by beating FC Porto away — this could give extra motivation to seek points even when playing away.
These factors reinforce my view that despite the visitors defensive difficulties, they can leverage this extra motivation to surprise again.

📈 Positional Analysis:
Both teams are close in the lower part of the table — Nacional around 11th place with 20 points; Casa Pía just behind in the penultimate position with only two points less.
This proximity increases the importance of this match as a direct confrontation to escape relegation, further increasing the expected competitiveness of the game.

The original prediction from Bets Kenya model indicates a strong favoritism for the visitor with a very high expected value (+41%) suggesting a clear bet on this option — I fully agree! My analysis confirms that there is real value in betting on Casa Pías victory due to the extra motivation after a recent win over a strong opponent and the defensive fragility of the home team.
Therefore, my recommendation is to bet on Casa Pías victory, as I see the greatest potential for positive return based on the combined statistics and recent news 🤑⚽️!

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Nacional x Casa Pia?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Nacional x Casa Pia, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Nacional x Casa Pia for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 8 of February

Latest news on the match between Nacional and Casa Pia

C.D. Nacional: C.D. Nacional, a Madeira-based club that hosts its matches at Estádio da Madeira, is in the lower half of the Primeira Liga 2025-26 standings, with a record of five wins, five draws, and ten losses, a goal difference of –3, and 20 points after 20 matches, roughly occupying 11th or 12th place; recent results have been poor, including a 2-1 defeat to Sporting CP on February 1, 2026, at Estádio José Alvalade and a 2-1 loss to Vitória SC on January 2, 2026. The team faces crucial upcoming games, hosting Casa Pia on February 8, 2026, in Funchal, and traveling to face Moreirense on March 8, 2026, important matches for any attempt to escape relegation.

Casa Pia: Casa Pia is currently in 15th place in Liga Portugal Betclic with 18 points from 20 games (4 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses) and a goal difference of –17, fighting to avoid relegation under coach Álvaro Pacheco; the team surprised by beating FC Porto 2-1 on February 2, 2026, at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. Upcoming fixtures include hosting C.D. Nacional on February 8, traveling to face FC Arouca on February 14, and then hosting Famalicão on February 23. The club’s stadium seats about 7,000 spectators.

Table analysis for the match between Nacional x Casa Pia

National: National is in 11th place on the table with 20 points, positioned in the lower mid-table region, without a clear risk of immediate relegation but also far from the spots for international competitions. With 11 rounds played so far, the team needs to earn points to move away from the danger zone and improve its position, but the match is not decisive for fighting for something bigger this season. Therefore, the game is important to stay stable in the competition and avoid approaching the Z-3, but it is not a high-pressure or decisive match.

Casa Pia: Casa Pia is in 15th place with 18 points, relatively close to the relegation zone, making this game quite relevant. Every point is valuable to escape the threat of relegation or playoff dispute, as the team is in a delicate situation and needs results to secure its stay in the Primeira Liga. Thus, the match is highly important for Casa Pia, as they need to prevent further approach from the danger zone and can use this game to gather key points.

Summary: The match is of greater importance for Casa Pia, which is fighting relegation, while National sees the game as an opportunity to establish itself outside the critical zone. Overall, the game is more relevant for one of the teams, with greater impacts for Casa Pia.

How the handicap and odds moved for Nacional x Casa Pia

Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Nacional x Casa Pia (1X2, handicap and goals).

Tips for the 1×2 market for Nacional x Casa Pia

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Nacional and Casa Pia.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1475819 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is betting on Nacional worth it?

🔵 Nacional: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 37.27% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.16. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 370 times – having a profit of $429.20;
• And would lose other 630 times – having a loss of -$630.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$200.80.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 25.18% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.16. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $540.00;
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$210.00.

Should you bet on Casa Pia?

🔴 Casa Pia: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 37.55%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.22. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 380 times – this would give you a profit of $843.60
• And would lose other 620 times – having a loss of -$620.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$223.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Nacional x Casa Pia

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Nacional
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Nacional x Casa Pia

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Nacional, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Nacional.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Casa Pia.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Nacional x Casa Pia

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for Nacional x Casa Pia