Nacional x Estrela Betting tips for April 6 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Nacional x Estrela, Sunday, 6/4/2025

📅 6/4/2025 14:30

Nacional 2.07

X 3.20

Estrela 3.60

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Nacional x Estrela:

🔮 Nacional wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Nacional, you can win up to $1035.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Nacional x Estrela: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Nacional in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $210.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Estrela in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-200.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Nacional scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 7 Estrela matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 Nacional matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Nacional conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Nacional x Estrela for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 6 of April

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Nacional x Estrela right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1296560 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Nacional x Estrela

Is it worth betting on Nacional?

🔵 Nacional: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 54.39%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.07. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 540 times – this would give you a profit of $577.80
• And would lose other 460 times – having a loss of -$460.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$117.80.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.68%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $594.00;
• And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$136.00.

Is betting on Estrela worth it?

🔴 Estrela: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 18.93% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $494.00
• And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$316.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Nacional x Estrela

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Nacional
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Nacional x Estrela

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Nacional and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Nacional.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Nacional.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Nacional x Estrela

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.