SC Farense x Casa Pia Betting tips for April 7 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for SC Farense x Casa Pia, Monday, 7/4/2025

📅 7/4/2025 17:45

SC Farense 2.76

X 3.10

Casa Pia 2.60

Our algorithm has selected this tip for SC Farense x Casa Pia:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for SC Farense x Casa Pia

Some important points for the tip for SC Farense x Casa Pia: 👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Farense in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Casa Pia in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-290.0. 👉 SC Farense did not score any goals in the last 4 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 4 SC Farense matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, SC Farense conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Casa Pia conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, SC Farense conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Casa Pia. 👉 It is not a good time for SC Farense as home team: it comes from 6 losses in a row in its last home matches. 👉 It is not a good time for Casa Pia as away team: it comes from 4 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from SC Farense x Casa Pia for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 7 of April

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for SC Farense x Casa Pia right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1297124 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for SC Farense x Casa Pia

Is it a good idea to bet on SC Farense?

🔵 SC Farense: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 34.84% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.76. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 350 times – having a profit of $616.00;
• And would have lost other 650 times – with a loss of -$650.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$34.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 35.01% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 350 times – profiting $735.00;
• And would have lost other 650 times – with a loss of -$650.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$85.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it a good idea to bet on Casa Pia?

🔴 Casa Pia: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.15%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $480.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$220.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match SC Farense x Casa Pia

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 SC Farense
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for SC Farense x Casa Pia

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 SC Farense and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 SC Farense.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Casa Pia.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for SC Farense x Casa Pia

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.