Tondela x Alverca Betting tips for February 13 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Tondela x Alverca, Friday, 13/2/2026

📅 13/2/2026 20:45

Tondela 2.55

X 3.10

Alverca 2.72

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Tondela x Alverca:

🔮 Tied Match
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Some important points for the tip for Tondela x Alverca:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Tondela in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-275.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Alverca in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-210.0.
👉 In the last 3 Alverca matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Alverca conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Alverca as away team: it comes from 4 losses in a row in its last away matches.

🤖 What does ChatGPT have to say about our prediction for Tondela vs Alverca?

Lets analyze the match between Tondela and Alverca that will take place at João Cardoso Stadium, Tondelas home ground. The stadium is the usual venue for the home team, which could give them some advantage.

📈 Table analysis: Tondela is in a delicate situation in 17th place, fighting against relegation with only 14 points in 21 matches. Meanwhile, Alverca is in 10th place with 24 points, showing more stability in the competition. This difference in positions indicates that Alverca has a bit more peace of mind and squad quality to seek better results.

Looking at recent stats: Tondela has scored an average of 0.8 goals per game at home in the last five matches (4 goals/5 games) and conceded about 1.2 goals per game (6 goals conceded/5 games). Additionally, they have a weak performance with only one win in the last five home games. The average ball possession is low (32%), indicating offensive and defensive difficulties.

Alverca away from home has also scored about 0.8 goals per game (4 goals/5 games), but has conceded many goals: an average over two per match (12 conceded/5 games), showing defensive fragility away from their stadium. However, their possession is higher than the opponents (37%) and they have managed some recent wins even away.

Based on median odds, the implied normalized probabilities are:

• Victory probability for Tondela: ~38%
• Draw: ~31%
• Victory for Alverca: ~31%

Adjusting for offensive and defensive stats of the teams and Tondelas urgent need, combined with their home advantage at João Cardoso Stadium — where they usually play — I would estimate a fair probability for the home team to win slightly higher (~40%), a draw (~30%), and an away win (~30%).

Thus, the fair odds would be approximately:

• Tondela win: ~2.50
• Draw: ~3.33
• Alverca win: ~3.33

Comparing the expected values of the final odds with my calculated fair odds, I see no clear positive value for betting on either visitors or home team wins; however, there is interesting value in the draw with EV calculated by the Bets Kenya model above +7%, reinforcing this as a good bet.

Suggested bet: A draw seems to be the best option here! ⚽️ Based on balanced statistics despite the table differences and considering both teams recent offensive struggles but mutual nullification in this important head-to-head.

📰 Important news:
Tondela is under pressure due to imminent relegation risk while playing at their traditional stadium; Alverca is in a comfortable position but without a recent positive streak away.
These factors reinforce my view of balance in this match, which could result in a strategic draw or even a tight result favoring the home team due to their extra pressure playing in front of their fans.

Overall, I agree with the Bets Kenya model analysis that the best bet is on the draw due to the positive expected value found in this option!

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Analysis from Tondela x Alverca for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 13 of February

Latest news on Tondela x Alverca

Tondela: Tondela is fighting to avoid relegation in Liga Portugal Betclic, currently in 17th place after 21 rounds, with three wins, five draws, and 13 losses, a goal difference of -21, and 14 points; they face a crucial home match against FC Alverca on February 13, 2026, at 20:45 UTC at Estádio João Cardoso, followed by an away game against CF Estrela Amadora on February 22, 2026, at 11:00 UTC at Estádio José Gomes, while their U-17 team continues competing in the national championship, having recently lost 2-1 to Leixões SC U17.

Alverca: Alverca is competing in Portugals top division, Liga Portugal, where they are in 10th place after 21 matches, with a record of seven wins, three draws, and eleven losses, a goal difference of -15, and 24 points; they will host Benfica on February 8, 2026, at Estádio da Luz and then travel to face Tondela on February 13, 2026. The reserve team, FC Alverca B, plays in the Campeonato de Portugal, having recently beaten Atlético Malveira 2-1, with upcoming matches against SU Sintrense on February 15, 2026, and GD Alcochetense on April 4, 2026. The clubs U-17 team is also active, scheduled to face Sporting CP U17 on February 7, 2026, in the National U-17 Championship.

Table analysis for the match between Tondela and Alverca

Tondela: Tondela is in 17th position, in the relegation zone, with 14 points. The team desperately needs points to try to escape this difficult situation, as they are very close to direct relegation. The match against Alverca is crucial for Tondela to try to distance itself from Z-3 and avoid dropping to a lower division. Therefore, the team is likely to go into the game highly motivated and under pressure to earn important points.

Alverca: Alverca is in 10th place, with 24 points, in an intermediate position on the table where they are not at risk of relegation nor close to international competition spots. Although they are in a comfortable position to stay out of danger, the team can use this game to gain confidence and climb a few positions on the table, but the result does not have a direct decisive impact on their pursuit of bigger goals at this stage of the season.

Summary: This match is very important for Tondela, which fights to escape relegation and depends heavily on the points it can earn. For Alverca, the game is more relaxed and serves to maintain rhythm, but it is not decisive for their future in the competition. Thus, the game is crucial for one team and less relevant for the other.

How the handicap and odds moved for Tondela x Alverca

Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Tondela x Alverca (1X2, handicap and goals).

Tips for the Match Odds market for Tondela x Alverca

When the best bet on Tondela x Alverca is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1479066 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is betting on Tondela worth it?

🔵 Tondela: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 36.62% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.55. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 370 times – this would give you a profit of $573.50
• And would lose other 630 times – losing -$630.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$56.50.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 33.95% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 340 times – profiting $714.00;
• And would lose other 660 times – having a loss of -$660.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$54.00.

Is it worth betting on Alverca?

🔴 Alverca: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 29.44% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.72. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 290 times – having a profit of $498.80;
• And would have lost other 710 times – with a loss of -$710.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$211.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Tondela x Alverca

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Tondela
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Tondela x Alverca

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Tondela and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Tondela.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Tondela.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Tondela x Alverca

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Tondela x Alverca