Tondela x Santa Clara Betting tips for March 1 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Tondela x Santa Clara, Sunday, 1/3/2026

📅 1/3/2026 15:30

Tondela 3.20

X 2.96

Santa Clara 2.35

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Tondela x Santa Clara:

🔮 Santa Clara wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Santa Clara, you can win up to $1175.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Tondela x Santa Clara:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Tondela in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-275.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Santa Clara in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Santa Clara, Tondela scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Tondela matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 Santa Clara matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Santa Clara conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Tondela vs Santa Clara:

Lets analyze the match between Tondela and Santa Clara, which will take place at João Cardoso Stadium, home of Tondela. 🏟️

📈 Table analysis: Both teams are very close in the Portugal Betclic League table, with Santa Clara in 16th and Tondela in 17th place, both fighting to escape the relegation zone. This indicates an urgent need for points from both sides, which could lead to a very competitive and tense game.

Statistically, Tondela has a modest home performance: averaging 1 goal per game in the last five home matches and conceding about 1 goal per game as well. The team struggles with possession (39% vs. 61% of opponents) and concedes more shots (13) than it creates (9). Santa Clara away from home shows similar attacking numbers (1 goal per game), but concedes more goals (an average of nearly 1.4 goals conceded) and has balanced possession (49%).

Normalizing the implicit median odds probabilities results in roughly the following fair chances: Tondela win ~28%, draw ~30%, Santa Clara win ~42%. This shows a slight favoritism towards the visitors.

However, considering the pressure of fighting relegation for both teams playing at Tondelas stadium — their usual ground — we can expect extra effort from the home team to secure important points.

📰 Recent news:
Tondela is trying to move away from the relegation zone after recent mixed results; Santa Clara is also close to that situation with irregular performance. This situation reinforces the expectation of a balanced duel where neither team will give up easily.

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers: home win at 3.2x, draw at 3x, away win at 2.4x; compared to my adjusted fair odds (~3.57 for home; ~3.33 for draw; ~2.38 for away), I see value in betting on the away win as the offered price is slightly higher than my fair estimate.

Expected value calculations indicate:
– Home win EV negative (-29%),
– Draw EV negative (-1%),
– Away win EV positive (+8%).

Final suggestion: I agree with the Bets Kenya model to indicate positive value only on the bet for Santa Clara to win away 🤑 Despite that, it is important to consider that it will be a very contested match due to the teams proximity in the table and their urgent need for points — so betting cautiously is recommended!

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Analysis from Tondela x Santa Clara for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 1 of March

Latest news on Tondela x Santa Clara

Tondela: Tondela is currently competing in the Liga Portugal Betclic, holding the 17th position in the league table as of the end of February 2026, and aims to escape relegation by facing CF Estrela Amadora at Estádio José Gomes on February 20, 2026, at 20:45 UTC. The clubs U-19 team is scheduled to play against União Torreense U-19 on February 28, 2026, in the U-19 Championship, after a recent 1-0 loss to OS Belenenses U-19, while the U-17 team secured a 3-1 victory over SC Farense U-17 on February 22, 2026, in the national U-17 competition.

Santa Clara: Santa Claras main team is currently in 16th place in Liga Portugal Betclic after their latest league match on February 21, 2026, a home game against FC Alverca at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. The clubs U-23 team will face Famalicão U-23 on March 3, 2026, in the U-23 Revelation League, while the next match for the U-19 team is scheduled for March 1, 2026, against Sporting U-19 in the U-19 Championship, after a goalless draw (0-0) with Famalicão U-19 in the previous encounter.

Portugal Primeira Liga table analysis for Tondela x Santa Clara

Tondela: Tondela is in 16th place, which puts the team in the relegation playoff zone, with 18 points. It is very close to Santa Clara, which is just below in the table, making this match essential to try to escape this dangerous position. A victory could be crucial to increase the gap from direct relegation and bring more hope for the final stretch of the championship. The game is a true “do or die” for Tondela in this relegation battle.

Santa Clara: Santa Clara is in 17th place, in the direct relegation zone, also with 18 points, but behind Tondela on goal difference. The matchup against Tondela, which is just above in the table, is vital to try to leave the last place in the zone and avoid direct drop. Every point is vital, and a defeat could worsen the clubs situation even more, making this game a decisive battle for staying in the Primeira Liga.

Summary: This is an extremely important game for both teams, as a direct confrontation at the bottom of the table that could determine who still has a chance to escape direct relegation. The match carries high stakes for both teams fighting to stay in the Portuguese top flight.

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Tondela x Santa Clara

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Tondela x Santa Clara.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Tondela x Santa Clara

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Tondela and Santa Clara.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1488452 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is it worth betting on Tondela?

🔵 Tondela: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.01% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 220 times – this would give you a profit of $484.00
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$296.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 32.86% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.96. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 330 times – profiting $646.80;
• And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$23.20.

Is betting on Santa Clara worth it?

🔴 Santa Clara: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 45.13%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.35. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 450 times – this would give you a profit of $607.50
• And would have lost other 550 times – with a loss of -$550.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$57.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Tondela x Santa Clara

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Tondela
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Tondela x Santa Clara

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Tondela, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Tondela.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Tondela x Santa Clara

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Tondela x Santa Clara