Tepatitlan FC x Venados FC Betting tips for January 11 in Mexico Liga de Expansion
| 📅 11/1/2025 01:00 |
 Tepatitlan FC2.50 |
X 3.20 |
Venados FC  2.51 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Tepatitlan FC x Venados FC:
👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Tepatitlan FC x Venados FC
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The main points for the tip for Tepatitlan FC x Venados FC: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Tepatitlan FC in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-333.0. |
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Analysis from Tepatitlan FC x Venados FC for the Mexico Liga de Expansion – 11 of January
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🏟️ Tepatitlan FC X Venados FC – Mexico Liga de Expansion |
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Tepatitlan FC and Venados FC.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1244129 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Tepatitlan FC x Venados FC
Is it worth betting on Tepatitlan FC?
🔵 Tepatitlan FC: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 39.08% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 390 times – this would give you a profit of $585.00
- And would have lost other 610 times – with a loss of -$610.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$25.00.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.3% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 310 times – this would give you a profit of $682.00
- And would lose other 690 times – having a loss of -$690.00 with them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$8.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Should you bet on Venados FC?
🔴 Venados FC: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 29.62%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.51. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $453.00;
- And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$247.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Tepatitlan FC x Venados FC
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Tepatitlan FC
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Tepatitlan FC x Venados FC
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Tepatitlan FC, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Tepatitlan FC.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Tepatitlan FC.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Tepatitlan FC x Venados FC
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
